ABSTRACT
Imported Western technology could yield the Soviet Union a direct, short-term military advantage in two possible ways. The first is a transfer leading directly to a revolutionary Soviet breakthrough. The second is a transfer that suddenly fills a gap, overcomes a bottleneck, or completes a puzzle in an otherwise mature Soviet technology, enabling the Soviets to proceed to a rapid expansion of numbers or a sudden generational improvement in a major weapons system. The more difficult issue in export-control policy is not whether the West is selling the Russians the rope but whether we are selling them the capacity to make it themselves, by helping them to overcome technological lags in the broad industrial infrastructure needed for tomorrow's advanced weapons systems. Foreign technology, whatever else it may do, contributes to the overall growth of the Soviet economy.
