ABSTRACT
This chapter focuses on the political pushes and pulls that will influence military regimes in sub-Saharan Africa during the latter half of the 1980s. The methodology that underlies what follows is simple. The chapter examines factors that impinge strongly upon the "typical" soldier-ruler and seem likely to persist into the future more or less as constants. The uniformed leader who has seized power in the typical sub-Saharan country will find himself at the helm of a leaky ship of state. Weak institutions, a sluggish economy, and a fractionated society characterize the domestic environment, while external forces, particularly global economic currents, exert an internal impact largely beyond the control of the government. The insecure soldier-politician will instead immediately attempt to surround himself with advisers who can be trusted, competence being a far lesser consideration than loyalty. Military capabilities are likely to sutler from the military ruler's efforts to keep potential challengers from developing power bases within the armed forces.
