ABSTRACT

This chapter presents a description of the DIOSIM framework and describes the Rhodesian application of the model. The rapidly developing problems associated with transition to majority rule in Rhodesia can affect future development. The model of Rhodesia began with a sensitivity assessment of the Kenyan model's system of equations to assess whether the model would remain stable when some of the major parameter estimates of Rhodesia were used instead of Kenyan data. The possible patterns of transition to majority rule in Rhodesia range from a very orderly and gradual process to a violent and extended civil war. Simulation modeling is a promising method for assessing trade-offs. The simulation modeling effort in Rhodesia would have been strengthened by a coordinated study of the major life support systems as was done in Lesotho. The simulation patterns the urban drift problem by applying a migration rate to the rural population moving to urban areas.