ABSTRACT
Much as people may agree on the importance of nonproliferation, it is almost amusing to see how variously they define what should be kept from proliferating. If the threat of nuclear proliferation is defined as the possibility that nations with access to nuclear technology may someday come up with a crude explosive device or two, there is nothing that can be done to prevent it. The probability of breakdown in the excessively sophisticated safety systems is a million times higher than the real accident probability. Arguments about nonproliferation, as they are stated in some quarters in the United States, are so preoccupied with improbable scenarios that they have become ends in themselves, though making no useful contribution to the cause of nonproliferation. In this regard, restraints on the international sale of airplanes and missiles would be at least as important a nonproliferation measure as the export of critical nuclear technology.
