ABSTRACT
We encountered some probability and simulation earlier in this book, in Chapter 7. There, we simulated many sequences of 30 at-bats of a baseball player. We saw that according to the model, the outcomes could vary substantially simply by chance: some weeks, the player will be on a tear, other weeks the player will be in a deep slump. While such hot and cold streaks are consistent with athletes' experiences, it is surprising that a simple unchanging success-failure random mechanism could produce such wide swings in performance.
