ABSTRACT

The investigation of the flight accidents shows that the accidents are generated by 3 · 5 system errors and failures at least. The probability of came into the first, second and following failures depends on the deviations in operational characteristics and failures came out earlier.

The lecture deals with the specific peculiarities of taking into account the system anomalies in the flight safety analysis. The model developed is based on the Markov and semi-Markov modeling of the flight situations including the came into the common and depending failures. The transition probabilities are determined on the basis of the flight accident analysis.