ABSTRACT
The words we choose aren't random; rather, they indicate how we view the world and how we want others to view the world. Analysis of discourse can elucidate hidden goals and ideological manipulations. A systematic methodology to analyze and interpret discourse, developed by AFRL in partnership with the National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC), enables an analyst to develop a more nuanced understanding of a group, intergroup polarization and to identify leading indicators of hostile activity/violence. An initial methodology, based on critical discourse analysis, was refined by focus groups and a case study with Arabic documents. The refined methodology, which identifies key factors or rhetorical devices and intensifiers, was transitioned to NASIC where it has been used successfully for forecasting. To supplement the methodology, a prototype Arabic text analytics tool was developed to improve analyst throughput by sorting, triaging documents as well to alert the analyst based on salient changes in discourse. The same approach was used to develop a methodology to identify and interpret ingroup/out-group for Pashto discourse. This methodology was used in a study to assess changes in discursive markers and strategies in discourse of the mujahedeen (Soviet occupation era) and the contemporary discourse of the Taliban (2009-2010). These methodologies provide a mechanism to forecast as well as understand discourse in order to develop strategies for messaging and influence.
