Predictive societal indicators of radicalism – Forecasting political violence

The Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism (PSIR) Political Violence Model forecasts changes in political violence at quarterly and yearly intervals into the future. Using a regression model applied to a large number of drivers of conflict variables spanning numerous open source social science datasets, the PSIR model uses a novel negative residuals analysis technique. Negative residuals result from the model predicting higher levels of violence than actually experienced, indicating nation states that are pre-disposed to increasing levels of violence based on the presence of environmental conditions and drivers of conflict that have a demonstrated correlation with measured political violence. The negative residuals forecast states where we expect to observe increases in violence – not necessary high levels of violence – a nuanced interpretation that we believe will be of more

high levels of violence in already violent states.