ABSTRACT

This chapter describes how evidence is brought together to identify the best supported cause or causes. Ideally, diverse evidence all points to the same causal conclusion, and weakening or refuting evidence removes all alternative explanations. However, even when one cause is supported by relevant, strong, diverse, and consistent evidence, other causes may also be supported to some degree. The array of causal assessment problems is too diverse to allow that. Simpler problems and smaller sets of evidence allow simpler systems for evaluating the evidence. Also, an assessor needs to feel comfortable with whatever system is used. However, each causal assessment should describe and use a clearly defined method, not just a general approach. Evidence is judged to be admissible when it meets minimum relevance and quality criteria. Having criteria to judge relevance and quality helps to maintain consistency.