ABSTRACT
This chapter illustrates the use of both spatial and temporal patterns and a simulation model to derive evidence. Naval Petroleum Reserve Number 1 (NPR-1) is located on the Elk Hills, on the western edge of the San Joaquin Valley, west of Bakersfield, California. It is an oil field that was held in reserve for the Navy until 1976 when Congress ordered that it be developed to produce at the maximum efficient rate. Quantitative monitoring began in 1980 and documented a precipitous decline in the abundance of the endangered San Joaquin kit fox from 1981 to 1986. The question was recently revisited as a demonstration of the applicability of the CADDIS to a terrestrial case involving a wildlife population. A full presentation of that assessment has been published by Suter and O’Farrell. The chapter summarizes the most important evidence and inferences from that assessment. Evidence was developed and organized using the CADDIS types of evidence.
