ABSTRACT
Generally, the failure probabilities can be obtained from several sources, such as failure records, failure databases, literature review, or industry-based reports and documents. However, in some cases these sources do not contain the needed probabilities for some basic events. In such cases, expert-opinion elicitation can be used to obtain the needed information. For example, the failure rate of the hoisting machinery brake was obtained from failure records, and the probability that a passerby would fall into an open elevator trunk (human error) required expert-opinion elicitation.
