Using Statistical Models to Simulate Salinity Variability in Estuaries

CONTENTS Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 33 Methods and Materials ............................................................................................................................ 34

Study Area and Data ...................................................................................................................... 34 Model Development ....................................................................................................................... 35 Model Runs for Operational Evaluations ...................................................................................... 39

Results ...................................................................................................................................................... 41 Discussion ................................................................................................................................................ 47 Conclusions .............................................................................................................................................. 50 Acknowledgments.................................................................................................................................... 51 References ................................................................................................................................................ 51

Models to simulate the variability of salinity in estuaries are important as tools to characterize the current salinity situation, and to estimate the salinity regime that may result from a change in the watershed hydrology. The salinity regime of Florida Bay is a primary factor in the composition of the estuarine ecosystems in Everglades National Park. Because of this, salinity data have been collected in the bay for a relatively long time, in some places since the 1930s. Over the past decade, continuous measurements have been collected.