Demographic Microsimulation with DEMOS 2000: Design, Validation, and Forecasting
As illustrated earlier in this handbook, new concepts in travel demand modeling capture and predict travel behavior more realistically than ever before. At the heart of any forecasting model, however, are social, economic, and demographic data. In addition, the overwhelming majority of these new travel demand models need this type of data at the person or household levels. Moreover, predictions from these forecasting models are very sensitive to the accuracy of the information provided as input. Although this has been recognized for more than 20 years, sociodemographic forecasting for travel demand systems is progressing at a much slower pace than needed to support new policy initiatives and associated modelbuilding efforts (Goulias, 1997).