ABSTRACT
Production........................................................ 733 30.1.1.1 Climate Change: CO2 Fertilization
Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystem Production.......................................... 733
30.1.1.2 Climate Change Impacts on Forest Ecosystems ............................. 733
30.1.1.3 Climate Change Impacts on Water Supply ..................................... 734
30.1.2 Global Warming and Food Insecurity ............ 734 30.1.2.1 Greenhouse Gases and Food
Security in Low-Income Countries............................................ 734
30.1.2.2 Effect of Global Climate Change on Agricultural Pests ........................ 734
30.1.2.3 Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Different Regions .............................. 735
30.1.2.4 Modeling Future Climate Changes and Crop Production Scenario Challenges.......................... 735
30.1.2.5 Policy Considerations Related to Twin Problems of Global Warming and Food Insecurity.......... 736
30.1.3 Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration and Food Security ................................................... 736 30.1.3.1 Environmental and Socioeconomic
Context for Soil Carbon Sequestration..................................... 737
30.1.3.2 Land Use, Soil Management, and Soil Carbon Sequestration................ 737
30.1.3.3 Modeling and Extrapolating Soil Carbon Sequestration ....................... 738
30.1.3.4 Environmental and Socioeconomic Analysis of Soil Carbon Sequestration..................................... 738
30.1.4 Policy and Economic Issues............................ 739 30.1.4.1 Policies and Incentives for
Permanent Adoption of Agricultural Carbon Sequestration Practices in Industrialized and Developing Countries........................ 739
30.1.4.2 Climate Change, Poverty, and Resource-Friendly Agriculture ......... 740
30.1.4.3 Climate Change and Public Policy Challenges .............................. 741
30.1.4.4 Climate Change Impacts on Developing Countries........................ 741
30.1.4.5 Climate Change and Tropical Agriculture: Implications for Social Vulnerability and Food Security ..................................... 742
30.2 Identification of Researchable Priorities ................... 742 Acknowledgments................................................................. 744 References............................................................................. 744
The globe has experienced a 31% increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) and substantial increases in other greenhouse gases (GHGs) since the industrial revolution (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], 2001). The current rate of increase of CO2 is about 0.5% or 1.5 ppm per annum. At this rate, the concentration of atmospheric CO2 will double by the end of the 21st century. Environmental and related agricultural impacts of this increased concentration of CO2 and other GHGs are subject to debate. But most would concur that several impacts will result, namely:
• A rise in the mean global temperature, which will cause alterations in the amount and distribution of precipitation, and local, regional, and global changes in water and energy balances
• A fertilization effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on plant growth, with probable increases in biological productivity and water-use efficiency
• A decrease in soil organic carbon (SOC) pools, accompanied by a decline in soil quality and an increase in soil erosion and other degradation processes
• An increase in the incidence of pests and pathogens with attendant adverse effects on crop yields and food production
• Adverse effects on global food security, especially in tropical and subtropical regions that are characterized by soils prone to degradation, large numbers of resource-poor farmers, and high demographic pressures
Climate shifts have occurred almost constantly during the Earth’s history. However, the rate of projected change during the 21st century may be unprecedented. Interacting factors involved in this process are complex. However, it is
important to assess whether global agricultural production will increase or decrease, whether the quality of soil and water resources will improve or decline, whether the beneficial effects of CO2 fertilization will be enhanced or nullified by other adverse impacts of global warming such as decline in soil quality, and whether food security will be jeopardized in regions with fragile soils and high population density.
