ABSTRACT
Spline Regression ................................................................................................ 252 Simple Splines ................................................................................................. 252 SETAR Models ................................................................................................253
Catastrophe Theory ............................................................................................254 Fold ...................................................................................................................255 Cusp .................................................................................................................256 Entropy and Self-Organization ....................................................................258 Swallowtail ...................................................................................................... 259 Butter°y ........................................................................................................... 260 Umbilic Models .............................................................................................. 261 Nonelementary Models ................................................................................. 262 Models and Classi‡cation ............................................................................. 263 Causality .......................................................................................................... 263
Dynamic Difference Equations for Catastrophes ...........................................264 Cusp Model .....................................................................................................264 MarkovAssumption ...................................................................................... 265 Prototype Experimental Design ................................................................... 266 SPSS Syntax ..................................................................................................... 267 Order of Variable Entry ................................................................................. 269 BusAccidents .................................................................................................. 269 Alternative Scale Formula ............................................................................. 271 Cusps for Program Evaluations ................................................................... 271 Fold, Swallowtail, and Butter°y Models .................................................... 273 Umbilic Catastrophe Models ........................................................................ 274 Critiques .......................................................................................................... 275 Cross-Validation .............................................................................................277
Notes ..................................................................................................................... 278 References ............................................................................................................. 278
