ABSTRACT
CONTENTS 5.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 5.2 NCHS Cancer Mortality Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133 5.3 Review of Previous Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 5.4 The State Space Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 5.5 Application . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 5.6 “Tuned” SSM .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 5.7 Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 5.8 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 5.A Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
5.A.1 The Kalman Filter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 5.A.2 Autocovariances of the Local Quadratic Trend Model . . . . . . . 149
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
Despite the decrease in overall cancer mortality rates in the United States since the early 1990s, cancer remains amajor public health problem. The total number of recorded cancer deaths in the United States continues to increase every year, due to an aging and expanding population. Cancer is currently the second leading cause of death in the United States after heart disease, and is estimated to cause approximately 563,700 fatalities in 2004-which is more than 1500 people a day (see American Cancer Society, 2004). The National Institutes of Health (NIH) predicted the overall annual costs of cancer for 2001 at $156.7 billion: $56.4 billion for direct medical costs, $15.6 billion for indirect morbidity costs, and $84.7 billion for indirect mortality costs.
