ABSTRACT
In this chapter, we intend to provide a balanced view on petroleum. A balanced portrayal is necessary for intelligent decisions when faced with many alternatives. An unbalanced or biased story runs contrary to the goals stated herein. If the reader agrees with a slanted version and fi nds the statements in harmony with his/her feelings, then agreement is strong. If the reader does not agree, then the material is dismissed as propaganda. A broad and balanced discussion of energy appears in Ref. [1]. Relative to oil production one extreme is the alarmist position. The “sky is falling” or “cry wolf” syndromes prevail. Past predictions of depletion of oil supplies have proven false; hence impending doom seems unlikely. The other extreme is one of nonchalance. More oil can always be found. Anyhow, if new petroleum reservoirs are not found, then alternate fuels will replace oil. In the short term, the hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) (gasoline or diesel) that relies more on compressed natural gas will start the transition. Beyond natural gas is the introduction of biofuels on a larger scale with a sizeable percentage decrease (20%–30%) in petroleum usage. In midterm, fuel cells and the hydrogen infrastructure look likely. (See Figures 1.7 and 22.9. See also Ref. [21].)
A balanced discussion incorporates arguments and facts from both ends of the spectrum. The basic uncertainty in predicting the time for the peak in oil production is recognized. The unknowns, that might be called wildcards, are not dismissed. These unknowns can be favorable or unfavorable.
