ABSTRACT
Step 1: Identify Focal Issue or Decision. Like other scenario methodologies developed to examine macro-scale or contextual environments, the process begins with the identification of specific decisions faced by an individual, organization, or government agency.2 Beginning in such a way grounds the process in aspects of the future that are relevant to expected needs. In some cases, a very precise, single action may be under consideration; in others, a set of related actions may be under review. Regardless of the relative magnitude of the decision, this first stage of the process is intended to center the investigation on the identifiable concerns. That is, questions take the form, Should we invest in “x”? or Should we follow strategy “y”?; not, Will global event “a” occur? or Will society solve problem “b”?
