ABSTRACT
Risk assessment regardless of the underlying application has evolved as a process and, in fact, it has evolved around a very specific framework (1). Simply put the process involves gathering information, weighing its value, deciding its impact, and then making a decision as to the overall potential risk. This process is very much like the major life decisions we all make. For example, think about the process you go through in selecting a job. Just replace the risk of some unwanted event with the risk of not “liking” or “being happy” with the job. It begins by using the “data collection system” of the yellow legal pad with two columns: pro and con. The list of all the factors scrolls down the left-hand side of the page and comments captured under either or both headers. This method served many well over the years as a means to capture all the important factors that would contribute to the final decision. Those factors included salary, geographical location, benefits, specifics of the role, potential growth and development, reputation of the company, the people you would be working with, your immediate supervisor, and the specific working environment, to name those on the first page. All this information would be collected and then weighted as to its importance. Of course, each factor’s importance differs for every individual. For some, salary is an important factor that may receive the top spot, whereas location may be more important for others.
However, I am sure my scientific colleagues are only motivated by the pursuit of knowledge. The process then rests with utilizing some judgment based on previous knowledge and experience and/or input from others. The integration of all this data with the “conditions of satisfaction” then allows an outcome: is the job a good fit? This same thought process applies to many other major decisions we make such as which college to attend (perhaps this decision has more parental influence than the others), buying a house, investing our money, and so on. These applications illustrate a focused and deliberate way of thinking about the question and deriving the best answer. This is very much the risk assessment approach in its simplest form.
