ABSTRACT
One of the most widely documented ecological consequences of the current climaticchange episode is that of geographic range shifts of species (Parmesan and Yohe 2003; Root et al. 2003; Parmesan 2006). The geographic range is the spatial manifestation of underlying population processes, such as local colonization and extinction, which are naturally dynamic but become even more lively when sudden or abrupt changes in the environment (biotic or abiotic) occur (Brown et al. 1996; Holt 2003).
Predicting Species’ Distributions under Climate Change ........................................68 Ecological Niche Modeling.................................................................................68 Strengths and Limitations of ENM ..................................................................... 70 Sources of Error and Uncertainty in ENM .......................................................... 72 Model Validation ................................................................................................. 73 Alternative Approaches for Predicting Species’ Distributions under Climate Change ................................................................................................... 75
Predicting Species’ Abundance at the Rangewide Scale .........................................77 Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 79 Summary .................................................................................................................. 79 References ................................................................................................................ 79
