ABSTRACT
Introduction ............................................................................................................ 130 Literature on Learning Curves ............................................................................... 131 Analysis of System Performance and Resilience ................................................... 132 Half-Life Property of Natural Substances .............................................................. 132 Half-Life Application to Learning Curves ............................................................. 135 Derivation of Half-Life of the Log-Linear Model ................................................. 136 Computational Examples ....................................................................................... 138 Cost Expressions for the Log-Linear Model .......................................................... 140 Alternate Formulation of the Log-Linear Model ................................................... 140 Half-Life Analysis of Selected Classical Models .................................................. 142
S-curve Model ................................................................................................... 142 Stanford-B Model.............................................................................................. 143 Derivation of Half-Life for Badiru’s Multi-Factor Model ................................ 143 DeJong’s Learning Formula .............................................................................. 145 Levy’s Adaptation Function .............................................................................. 147 Glover’s Learning Model .................................................................................. 148 Pegels’ Exponential Function ........................................................................... 148 Knecht’s Upturn Model ..................................................................................... 150 Yelle’s Combined Product Learning Curve ....................................................... 151
Contemporary Learning-Forgetting Curves .......................................................... 151 Jaber-Bonney Learn-Forget Curve Model (LFCM) ......................................... 152 Nembhard-Uzumeri Recency (RC) Model ....................................................... 154 Sikström-Jaber Power Integration Diffusion Model ......................................... 154
Potential Half-Life Application to Hyperbolic Decline Curves ............................. 157 Conclusions ............................................................................................................ 158 References .............................................................................................................. 159
The military is very much interested in training troops fast, thoroughly, and effectively. Team training is particularly important as a systems approach to enhancing military readiness. Thus, the prediction of team performance is of great importance in any military system. In military training systems that are subject to the variability and complexity of interfaces, the advance prediction of performance is useful for designing training programs for ef¥cient knowledge acquisition and the sustainable retention of skills. Organizations invest in people, work processes, and technology for the purpose of achieving increased and enhanced production capability. The systems nature of such an investment strategy requires that the investment is a carefully planned activity, stretching over multiple years. Learning curve analysis is one method through which system enhancement can be achieved in terms of cost, time, and performance vis-à-vis the strategic investment of funds and other assets. The predictive capability of learning curves is helpful in planning for system performance enhancement and resilience.
