Probabilistic approach for predicting life cycle costs and performance of bridges

EXTENDED ABSTRACT: The construction industry is a major consumer of non-renewal resources. Life Cycle Costing (LCC) enables the whole life cost and performance of bridges to be optimised and so can make a major contribution to sustainable development. The increasing use of procurements arrangements such as the Private Finance Initiative (PFI) and the Public Private Partnership (PPP) has focused stakeholders on the whole life cost and not simply on the lowest capital cost. This has led to a demand of LCC models that can provide uncertainty quantification in addition to accurate forecasts and estimates. The quantification of the overall risk exposure, throughout risk analysis, will help the design team to concentrate on the most critical elements, avoiding in this way waste, though over-design, or costly premature deterioration.