ABSTRACT

The objective of frequency modelling is the production of a model that gives you the probability of a given number of losses occurring during a given period, such as the policy period or a calendar year. As is the case with all models we use for pricing, the frequency model may be based to a varying extent on past losses, but it is a prospective model, that is, it tells you what the number of losses will be in the future. As such, loss experience will have to be adapted to current circumstances before it can be used (Figure 14.1).