ABSTRACT
Political, industrial, organisational and financial transformation from centralised to decentralised energy forms involves significant challenges. The choice of the best solutions requires extensive research, development, testing and demonstration of new energy solutions, shifting from the use of limited energy resources to the use of renewable energy technology. The wind and the sun set no resource constraints for future energy supply. Utilisation is the foundation for new industries and jobs.To ensure a rapid transformation, it is necessary to remove the bureaucratic barriers for the extensive use of decentralised energy which exist in some countries. The need for non-traditional forms
of technology transfer to countries without their own technological base is urgent, as are comprehensive educational and training programs that apply best practice from the leading renewable countries and institutes. As there is no time to waste, it does not make sense for every country to go through the same failures and experiences which were part of the teething process in the handful of pioneering countries. This would be a waste of valuable human and financial resources. Due to the urgency of the transition process and the search for basic renewable energy technology know-how, various forms of appropriate methods and instruments must be made available in the form of non-commercial transfer of technology and training through the international community. Centres and institutes which have, through their pioneering work, paved the way in their home countries, should now commit themselves to the challenge of making their valuable knowledge and experiences available to the 90% of the world’s countries that have not yet developed renewable energy sectors on any significant scale.We need to see a very high growth worldwide similar to what has happened with renewable energy, especially in China and India since 2004. Here we find big countries with significant growth rates and industrialisation. Their demand for energy supply for power, cooling, heating and transport will grow faster than the world average consumption in the coming decades. This development should not be blocked by shortage and high prices of fossil fuels. The new-industrialised countries have to realise that they are part of international climate solutions. China, India and other Asian countries have often displayed, in contrast to the western countries, an impressive flexibility and readiness to go new ways. They, like many other emerging economies, shall take the vast opportunity to base their future growth on renewable energy and energy efficient solutions in all walks of society. They have the opportunity to make renewable energy a new growth sector like the information technology sector in the 1990s. However, the energy sector will become much bigger. 1. Wind Industry Leads the Way The wide-scale deployment of renewable energy can be launched over the next decades. The technologies are already mature and
experience has shown that little time is needed to establish new production facilities. Spain, having introduced renewable energy promotion programs in 1995, represented the world’s third largest wind turbine industry in the period of just a few years. From 2004 to 2011, China has become the most important wind turbine producer and with the biggest installed capacity. Many other countries such as Egypt, Brazil, Korea, Turkey and Pakistan have the potential to be important wind turbine manufacturers within a short time span of years. Table 1.1 Electricity: Power production capacity and annual power consumption in selected countries Country
Sources: Green World Investor, CIA World Factbook, The Observer, EDF.In 2010, the global total electricity production was 21 000 TWh of which 20% (4 200 TWh) came from renewables, where 3 400 TWh was hydro power. Wind power accounted for 344 TWh, coming from an installed wind power generation capacity of 200 GW, which is only little compared to world total generation capacity of 21 200 GW including all forms of power generation.With a change to renewable energy during the coming 40 years, I estimate that half of the needs for electricity of 10 000 TWh will come from wind. Thus, 7 000 GW wind power generation capacity will be needed as a minimum.
