ABSTRACT
Highly energetic solar eruptions involving bursts of radiation and discharges of plasma can eject charged particles into space and damage technological infrastructure (e.g. radio communications, electric power transmission, and the performance of low-Earth orbit satellites). Such “space weather” events are
in Bayesian
of high solar activity-a loose term that is defined only by observable proxy variables. Variations in the level of solar activity follow a roughly 11-year cyclic pattern, which is known as the solar cycle. Since energetic space weather events are more common near the solar maximum-the peak in solar activity during the 11-year cycle-there is considerable interest in predicting the timing and amplitude of future solar maxima, which has practical value in the planning of space missions. Nevertheless, predicting solar maxima remains a difficult task, with different methods yielding substantially different predictions (see [24] for an analysis of the various predictions made for the current solar cycle).
