ABSTRACT

To foresee events well in advance is a powerful ability to assess constantly the consequences of making decisions, avoiding risks, overcoming obstacles and achieving success in future. Our mind is faced with the diffi cult task of providing criteria with which to predict what will happen in the future. We suspect that many potential events are related, but in most situations it is impossible to establish this relationship precisely. However, we have a remarkable ability to value (with or without success) the odds in favor and against the occurrence of a given event. We are also able to use the evidence provided by our experience to establish with a degree of confi dence how plausible an event is. We have intuitive resources that allow us to judge

random situations and make decisions. However, many studies show that our intuitions about chance and probability can lead to errors of judgment.1 There it follows three examples:

Example 1. Linda is a clever, 31-year old single girl. When she was a student she was very concerned about issues of discrimination and social justice. Indicate which of the following two situations (1) or (2) you think is most likely:

1) Linda is currently employed in a bank. 2) Linda is currently employed in a bank and she is also an activist

supporting the feminist movement.