ABSTRACT
Our behavior is based on our past experiences and outcomes. We infer something about the future from what we know at present because we believe the future will be related to the past. However, problems arise when our intuition misleads us. Learning how to draw legitimate probabilistic conclusions is aided by a careful study of probability and can be facilitated by using graph representations. We will use trees with weighted edges to enumerate the possible outcomes and their likelihood, enabling us to systematically calculate the probability of various events. Again, the strategy of decomposing a problem into its smaller components allows us to construct the solution from more easily understood building blocks.
