ABSTRACT
E. Zio & N. Pedroni Department of Energy, Polytechnic of Milan, Milan, Italy
ABSTRACT: In this paper, the recently developed Subset Simulation method is considered for improving the efficiency of Monte Carlo simulation. The method, originally developed to solve structural reliability problems, is founded on the idea that a small failure probability can be expressed as a product of larger conditional failure probabilities for some intermediate failure events: with a proper choice of the conditional events, the conditional failure probabilities can be made sufficiently large to allow accurate estimation with a small number of samples. The method is here applied on a system of discrete multi-state components in a series-parallel configuration.
