ABSTRACT
The decision making process is based on the mission failure probability during the future phases. Two types of predictions are needed-before the start of the mission and when the mission is underway. The calculation of the initial mission failure probability establishes if the mission should begin in the current system configuration. After the start of the mission the failure probability is updated, when certain phases have been completed successfully, or some components that affect the functionality of the system have failed. If the updated failure probability is high, the mission cannot proceed in the current configuration and alternatives are used. For example, an alternative for an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) could be landing in a different location than was initially planned. In order to sustain the safety of the operation, rapid reaction to changing mission environment and system functionality is required. Therefore, a prognostics tool is expected to quickly provide accurate information so that appropriate decisions could be made before a catastrophic event.
