ABSTRACT
In this paper, we shall address some issues connected to the valuation of flood risk in the Netherlands and present some preliminary results. We use a stated preference approach for the elicitation of individual prefences with respect to flood risk and develop a questionnaire to be spread among the inhabitants of dike rings (with various levels of protection) in the Netherlands in the first half of 2008. We conduct three choice experiments, from which we expect to receive the estimates of the value of statistical life in flooding, the valuation of inconvenience from getting an injury in flooding and the valuation of inconvenience from a precautionary evacuation. There are two persistent problems encountered in this research. On the one hand, we have to do with extremely low yearly probabilities of a flood (down to 10−4) and of dying in a flood (down to 10−6), which might be ignored by the respondents in making trade-offs. On the other hand, this is further strengthened by the situation in theNetherlandswhere people see themselves as 100% protected from floods behind the dikes, which a priori imposes a significant ‘enthusiasm bias’ on their perception of flood risk that may depress individual risk valuation. Attaining to neutralise these effects, we provide extensive visualised probability explanations using graphic grid paper and risk ladder. So far we have not found much literature on the valuations of flood risks, so the current study will not only supply information to be used in flood management decisions
for the Dutch policy-makers, but also provide valuable insights to the field of natural hazard research.
