ABSTRACT
Probabilities are useful for prediction. How often will you win at solitaire? How often will you wreck your car on the way to work? How often will your research study turn out the way you want? Probabilities can’t predict these outcomes individually, but they can give you aggregate predictions, and these predictions are very useful for making decisions. For example, in your potential futures, you will die early more frequently if you don’t wear your seat belt than if you do wear it. This knowledge gives you a rational basis for making the decision to buckle your seat belt. But, it is entirely possible that you could die of natural causes after a long life of never wearing a seat belt; that is one of your potential futures. Similarly, a chain-smoker might live a long life cancer-free; that is one of the chain-smoker’s potential futures.
