chapter  8
22 Pages

Urban.Land.Use.Change,.Models,.Uncertainty,.and. Evidence.from.China

Projections suggest that as the world’s urban population will jump to 61% by 2030 (from today’s 50% mark), most of this urban growth will occur primarily in less developed countries, and in Asia in particular.1 Much interest already exists in megacities-cities with populations of 10 million or more-on which a significant amount of information is being collected. It has been noted though that the majority of urban growth will occur in medium-sized cities.2 Given that urban growth is a

major component of global environmental change3,4 and the danger of potential undesirable environmental and social effects caused by high rates of growth is everpresent, the relative importance of studying medium-sized cities versus megacities cities in the next century is high. Furthermore, developing world cities have limited human and financial resources employed in various aspects of policy making. Consequently, the collection of reliable data and the use of more advanced methods in planning practice and policymaking becomes extremely difficult (Figure 8.1).