ABSTRACT
All projections of energy-economic systems, particularly those that incorporate consumer and producer
behavior, are inherently uncertain. However, consumer and producer behavior are not the only sources of
uncertainty. Some of the other critical uncertainties on which projections depend include:
† The rate of technological progress for end use and supply technologies
† Changes in energy market regulations and efficiency standards
† The quantity, location, and depth of energy resources in the ground (e.g., coal, crude oil, natural
gas, nuclear material)
† The costs to explore, locate, and ultimately produce energy resources
† The willingness of financial markets to make energy investments
Consequently, the projections described in this chapter are not statements of what will happen, but rather
statements of what might happen given the assumptions and methodologies used.
