ABSTRACT
Carbon dioxide emissions from natural gas combustion worldwide are projected to increase on average by 1.7%. Fossil fuel use in the non-OECD countries is projected to increase strongly over the projection period; however, their economic growth is expected to be even stronger. As a result, non-OECD carbon dioxide intensity is projected to decline by an average of 2.6 percent per year, from 529 metric tons per million dollars of GDP in 2005 to 274 metric tons per million dollars of GDP in 2030. In particular, China, with a relatively high projected rate of growth in emissions (3.3 percent per year), has an even higher projected growth rate for GDP (6.4 percent). As a result, its emissions intensity falls from 693 metric tons per million dollars in 2005 to 334 metric tons in 2030.s
World natural gas consumption grew by an above-average 3.1% in 2007 (BP, 2008), although only North America, Asia Pacific and Africa recorded above-average regional growth (Fig. 2.4.1, Table 2.4.1). The US accounted for nearly half of the world’s gas consumption growth, driven by cold winter weather and strong demand for gas in power generation. Natural gas accounted for nearly all the growth in US energy consumption. Chinese consumption grew by 19.9% and accounted for the second-largest increment to global gas consumption. EU consumption declined by 1.6% – the second consecutive decline – in the face of warm winter weather. Gas production rose by 2.4% in 2007. As was the case for consumption, the US accounted for the largest increment to supply, growing by 4.3%, the strongest growth since1984. EU production declined by 6.4%, with UK output falling by 9.5%, the world’s largest volumetric decline for a second consecutive year.
