ABSTRACT
Product adoption frameworks/Bass Diffusion model Stock/flow structure for Doctor Adoption Incorporating physician awareness, trial, and usage (ATU) Factors contributing to adoption (internal vs. external) Quantifying the effects of physician marketing strategies Calibrating dynamic model of Doctor Adoption to historical data
The previous chapters have focused mostly on Patient Flow dynamics, but prescribing physicians clearly play an important role in pharmaceutical marketplace behavior. This fact is not lost on pharmaceutical firms, whose spending on marketing to doctors continues to grow. Physician promotion ballooned to $13.2 billion in 20001 and spending on physician meetings and events and journal advertising has been growing at an annual rate of 23.6% and 9.8%, respectively.2 These marketing efforts have been under the scrutiny of a number of industry experts to analyze the effectiveness of various types of promotions. Often such analyses take the form of a return on investment (ROI) calculation, which correlates promotional spending with resulting revenues-sometimes with a delay.3 The methodology
behind these types of calculations may vary, but the common mental model implicit in such analyses is shown in Figure 8.1.
