ABSTRACT
Overview of the portfolio problem How the Dynamic Modeling approach can be applied to pipeline
portfolio issues Continuous vs. agent-based models Analysis of pipeline dynamics Advantages of Dynamic Modeling in pipeline portfolio analysis Extensions of basic stock/flow for developmental pharmaceutical
compounds framework Move to OTC In-licensing Out-licensing Line extensions Incorporating parameter uncertainty Revenue streams Resource requirements
Portfolio management concepts have been an accepted component of the financial services realm for decades, and the need to diversify risk
continues to be an effective organizing principle for many financial instruments and analytic techniques. Risk is also a key component in the pharmaceutical world, where as few as one in 5,000 laboratory-tested compounds ever makes it to the market.1 It is no secret that the pipeline portfolio, then, is a critical indicator of a pharmaceutical firm’s future and the process of analyzing and managing it effectively is of vital strategic importance.
