ABSTRACT
According to the analysis presented in the previous chapter, a general increase of both the demographic and bioeconomic pressure on our planet is the main driver of intensification of agricultural production at the farming system level. In turn, a dramatic intensification of agricultural production can be associated with a stronger interference on the natural mechanisms of regulation of terrestrial ecosystems — that is, to a reduced ecological compatibility of the relative techniques of agricultural production. To deal with this problem, it is important to first understand the mechanisms through which changes in the socioeconomic structure are translated into a larger interference on terrestrial ecosystems. This is the topic of this chapter. Section 10.1 studies the interface socioeconomic context-farming system. At the farm level, in fact, the selection of production techniques is affected by the typology of boundary conditions faced by the farm. In particular, this section focuses on the different mix of technical inputs adopted when operating in different typologies of socioeconomic context. Section 10.2 deals with the nature of the interference on terrestrial ecosystems associated with agricultural production. A few concepts introduced in Part 2 are used to discuss the possible development of indicators. The interference generated by agriculture can be studied by looking at the intensity of the throughput of appropriated biomass per unit of land area. Changing the metabolic rate of a holarchic system (such as a terrestrial ecosystem) requires (1) a readjustment of the relative size of its interacting parts, (2) a redefinition of the relation among interacting parts and (3) changing the degree of internal congruence between produced and consumed flows associated with its metabolism. When the external interference is too large, we can expect a total collapse of the original system of controls used to guarantee the original identity of the ecosystem. Finally, Section 10.3 looks at the big picture presenting an analysis, at the world level, of food production. This analysis explicitly addresses the effect of the double conversion associated with animal products (plants produced to feed animals). After examining technical coefficients and the use of technical inputs related to existing patterns of consumption in developed and developing countries, the analysis discusses the implications for the future in terms of expected requirement of land and labor for agricultural production.
