ABSTRACT
Global demand for coal has increased steadily since the 1970s despite the increasing environmental regulations on coal use; and as seen earlier, the IEA World Energy Outlook 2011 projects that the demand for coal will increase by another 25% between 2009 and 2035. The IEA in its annual Medium-Term Coal Market Report (MCMR 2012) states that coal’s share of the global energymixwill continue to rise, and by 2017 coal will come close to surpassing oil as the world’s top energy source. Although the growth rate of coal will slow from the early pace of the first decade of the 21st century, global coal consumption will by 2017 stand at 4.32 billion tonnes of oil equivalent (btoe), versus around 4.40 btoe for oil. It is expected that coal demand will increase in every region of the world except in the USA, where coal is being replaced by shale gas. The world will burn around 1.2 billion more tonnes of coal per year by 2017 compared to today – equivalent to the current coal consumption of Russia and the USA combined. Coal’s share of the global energy mix continues to grow each year, and if the current policies continue, coal will catch up with oil within a decade according to the Report. China and India will lead the growth in coal consumption over the next five years, and China will surpass the rest of the world in coal demand during the outlook period, while India will become the largest coal importer and second-largest consumer, exceeding the USA. The report’s forecasts are based on an assumption, that carbon capture and sequestration will not be available during the outlook period. That is, CCS technologies are not taking off as once expected, and CO2 emissions will keep growing substantially (IEA’s MCMR 2012). This is slightly in contrast to the CCS development schedules given in IEA Roadmap.
