ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT: In this paper, a flood risk early warning model of crops was proposed on the basis of historical flood records, meteorological data and terrain data in Northeast China. With Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) method, daily precipitation for county was interpolated by daily precipitations of its nearest 3 climate stations. With bivariate regression, flood vulnerability function of crops among the crops’ flood-affected ratio, total storm precipitation and average elevation for county was built. Using the inverse function of vulnerability, warning line of total storm precipitation was calculated for county when its flood-affected ratio of crops exceeds a threshold. Then, risk early warning conditional probability model of crops in flooding that total precipitation in the future days can exceed warning line provided one-day or multi-days forecast precipitations as conditions was constructed, and risk earlywarning zonation can be performed according to warning probability. Finally, the models were used to work out risk early warning probability and early warning zonation for counties in Northeast China under 3-days forecast rainfall scenarios occurred.
