ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT: The thesis of this paper is that tailings impoundments fail as a result of a string of incidents, each of which is trivial and within the bounds of normal events, but which, taken together, constitute an event so unusual that it lies outside of the bound of normal occurrence and experience. The string of incidents leading to the failure of a tailings impoundment may be understood and evaluated in the light of the theory of the Black Swan, an event that nobody could have foreseen, that results in extreme consequences, and which can be explained after its occurrence by all on the basis of standard knowledge. In this paper we examine current theories and hence methods for avoiding failure of tailings impoundments. We find them all lacking, and so we proceed to set out proposed approaches based on incident control, checklists, and Black Swan avoidance to limit and hopefully eliminate the possibility of failure of tailings dams and the consequent loss of life and property.
