ABSTRACT
FDWLRQV XDO0RGHOV FH XVLRQV
INTRODUCTION
HHUHGWUDQVJHQLFPLFHKDYHEHHQXVHGLQUHVHDUFKIRURYHU %ULQVWHU0DQ\PRGHOVDUHQRZEHLQJFUHDWHGIRUGUXJ SPHQWVWUDWHJLHVWRLGHQWLI\WKHFULWLFDOELRORJLFDOUROHRI WKH PROHFXOHWRHQKDQFHXQGHUVWDQGLQJRISKDUPDFRORJLFDOPHFK UDFWLRQVZLWKPROHFXOHV LPSDFWLQJGUXJPHWDEROLVPDQGGLV
LQVLJKWLQWRWKHOLNHOLKRRGIRUDGUXJXQGHUGHYHORSPHQWIRU QG DYRLGLQJ VLJQLÀFDQW WR[LFLW\ %RORQ DQG*DOEUHDWK +DUULVHWDO/LYLQJVWRQ0HUOLQR
$ ,QWHUQDWLRQ LQWHQVH LQWHUHVW LQ L UHJXODWRU\HYDOXDWLR QLFLW\SRWHQWLDO,&+ UHSODFH RQH RI WKH DVVHVVPHQWVZLWKD WKHLUFKRLFHRIPRG
7UDQVJHQLFPRX VHTXHQFHVFRGLQJIR KXPDQ FDQFHU GHYHO PHGLFLQHDQGJUHDWHU '1$UHSDLUHQ]\PH VRXUFHRIWDUJHWVIRU WXPRU GHYHORSPHQW HQJLQHHUHGWRPRGLI\ FKHPLFDOFDUFLQRJHQ PHFKDQLVPV WKDQDU UROHLQDFRPPRQSD WR KXPDQV WKH PRG WDUJHWHG WKDW FRXOG UHOHYDQWWRKXPDQV DSSOLFDWLRQRIWKHP RJHQV-RKQVRQ RIPHFKDQLVPVLWLV ,IDPRGHOLVGHVLJQH RUFRQWULEXWRU\WRWKH UHVXOWLVOLNHO\7KHE WKDWWRDFFHSWWKHFK OLVWRIFKHPLFDOV LV LGHQWLI\DOOPHFKDQL RIVHYHUDOPRGHOVFD QDWLYHV IRUDVVHVVLQJ EHFDUHIXOO\VHOHFWHG
7KH WDUJHWHG UHZ PRGHOV WKDWZLOO DFF DQGVFLHQWLÀFDOO\MXV
DO &RQIHUHQFH RQ +DUPRQL]DWLRQ ,&+ DJUHHPHQW VSXUUHG QFRUSRUDWLQJ WUDQVJHQLFPLFH LQWR D SLYRWDO QRQFOLQLFDO VDIHW\ QIRUPDQ\KXPDQSKDUPDFHXWLFDOV³DVVHVVPHQWRIFDUFLQRJH :LWKWKLVDJUHHPHQWVSRQVRUVQRZKDYHDQRSWLRQWR WZR VSHFLHV XVXDOO\ WKH PRXVH QHHGHG IRU FDUFLQRJHQLFLW\ VKRUWRUPHGLXPWHUPDOWHUQDWLYHPRGHOZLWK MXVWLÀFDWLRQIRU HOVSHFLÀHG VHPRGHOV KDYHEHHQJHQHWLFDOO\ HQJLQHHUHG WR DGGRUPRGLI\ UFULWLFDOSURWHLQVWKDWKDYHEHHQVKRZQWRSOD\SLYRWDOUROHVLQ RSPHQW YDQ '\NH DQG -DFNV $GYDQFHV LQ PROHFXODU VFLHQWLÀ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ÀWVRILGHQWLI\LQJXQLYHUVDOO\DSSOLFDEOHPRGHOVDUHVRJUHDW DOOHQJHDQGEHJLQV\VWHPDWLFWHVWLQJZLWKDSULRULWL]HGVHOHFWHG LQHYHU\RQH·VEHVW LQWHUHVW:KLOHQRVLQJOHPRGHO LV OLNHO\ WR VPVRIFKHPLFDOFDUFLQRJHQHVLVLIWKHVWUHQJWKVDQGOLPLWDWLRQV QEHVSHFLÀFDOO\GHÀQHGWKHQDSSURSULDWHDSSOLFDWLRQVRIDOWHU GHÀQHG LVVXHV UHODWLQJ WRFDUFLQRJHQLFSRWHQWLDOZLOOQHHG WR RQDFDVHE\FDVHEDVLV DUGV IRU VXFFHVVIXOO\ GHYHORSLQJ JHQHWLFDOO\PRGLÀHG URGHQW XUDWHO\ LGHQWLI\ KXPDQ FDUFLQRJHQV XQGHU FDUHIXOO\ VSHFLÀHG WLÀHGFRQGLWLRQVRIXVHDUH
,IWR[LFRORJLVWVD IRUDVVHVVLQJDFKHPL PRGHOV SURYLGLQJ P WHVWLQJLVORJLFDO$V LPSURYHPHQWVDUHPD ZKLOHVXFKWHVWLQJSD WKH,&+DJUHHP URGHQW XVXDOO\ UDW VHFRQG\HDUFRPSO
%DVHGRQORJLFDO LQJWKHZLGHO\DFFHS RSPHQW )HDURQ DQG OLQHVKDYHEHHQGHUL WREHVXLWDEOHDOWHUQD PRGHOVWKDWZHUHVHO XDWLRQV RI WKHLU DELO SURYLGHDGGLWLRQDOY ZHUH 7J$& 0DF'RQDOG
)XUWKHUPRUHDGG EHHQ GHULYHG DV ZH FRPPHUFLDOO\DYDLOD HW DO @ S,1 FRPPHUFLDOO\DYDLODE ]HQHWDO@;3
7KHFULWHULDIRUD UHJXODWRU\GHFLVLRQP
UHHYHUWRHYROYHSDVWWRWDOUHOLDQFHRQURGHQWOLIHWLPHELRDVVD\V FDO·VKXPDQFDUFLQRJHQLFSRWHQWLDODFDUHIXODVVHVVPHQWRIQRYHO HFKDQLVWLF LQVLJKW WRJHWKHU ZLWK FXUUHQWO\ DFFHSWHG WUDGLWLRQDO H[SHULHQFHLVJDLQHGDQGFDUHIXOO\FRQVLGHUHGDGMXVWPHQWVDQG GHWRPRGHOV\VWHPVSXEOLFKHDOWKSURWHFWLRQFDQEHPDLQWDLQHG UDGLJPVFDQFRQWLQXH WRGHYHORSDQGEHIXUWKHUUHÀQHG7KXV HQWFDOOLQJIRUPDLQWDLQHGDSSOLFDWLRQRIRQHWUDGLWLRQDO\HDU VWXG\ DUP DQG D FKRLFH RI HLWKHU D VKRUWWHUP DOWHUQDWLYH RU D HPHQWDU\URGHQWVWXG\LVDUHDVRQDEOHSDWKIRUZDUG VFLHQWLÀFDOO\VXSSRUWHGWKLQNLQJZLWKLQWKHIUDPHZRUNRIVWXG\ WHGPXOWLVWHSDQGPXOWLVWDJHSURFHVVRIPDOLJQDQWWXPRUGHYHO 9RJHOVWHLQ D QXPEHU RI JHQHWLFDOO\ PRGLÀHGPRXVH YHGIRUUHVHDUFKSXUSRVHV6HYHUDORI WKHPRGHOVZHUH MXGJHG WLYHVIRUFDUFLQRJHQLFLW\HYDOXDWLRQVFUHHQLQJDSSURDFKHV7KH HFWHGE\DQXPEHURIODERUDWRULHVZRUOGZLGHIRUVSHFLÀFHYDO LWLHV WR GLVWLQJXLVK FDUFLQRJHQV IURP QRQFDUFLQRJHQV DQG WR DOXDEOH LQIRUPDWLRQRQPRGHDVZHOO DVPHFKDQLVPRI DFWLRQ 7JUDV+ 3² DQG ;3$²²3² 5RELQVRQ DQG
LWLRQDOELJHQLFDQGHYHQWULJHQLFYDQ6WHHJFURVVHVKDYH OO DV DGGLWLRQDO WUDQVJHQLF PRGHOV ZKLFK DUH QRW JHQHUDOO\ EOH HJ7*)DOSKD >*UHWHQHWDO@75$03>*LQJULFK
.$² >6HUUDQR HW DO @ HWF DQG RWKHUV ZKLFK DUH OHEXWKDYHUHFHLYHGPRUHOLPLWHGHYDOXDWLRQ3,0>YDQ/RKXL &²²>6DQGVHWDO@DQG.2'&>0HJRVKHWDO@ QLGHDOVKRUWWHUPDOWHUQDWLYHWXPRUPRGHOIRUDSSOLFDWLRQVWR DNLQJZRXOGLQFOXGH
:KLOHJRYHUQPH SXUVXLQJ D SDWKZD\ FRQWLQXHG DYDLODELOLW QLFLW\ HYDOXDWLRQV D PD\JRXQPHWXQOHV %URDG SDWHQ HQKDQFHGFDQFHUVXV JUDQWHGXQGHUWKHVH LFDOO\PRGLÀHGWXPR 1RQFRPPHUFLDO UHVH PRGHOV DUH IUHH WR DSSOLFDWLRQVZLWKDG PRVWUHVWULFWLYHSDWH UDLVHGFRQFHUQV WKDW ZLWKJHQHWLFVXVFHS DSSOLFDWLRQVWUDWHJLH PHQWVOLNHWKDWFRP RQQHZPRGHOVSHUF DUHSUHVHQWO\FRPP D EURDGHU OLFHQVLQJ 3URGXFWVSRQVRUVDS WKH8QLWHG6WDWHVIR
O
0RUHLQGHSWKUH PRGHOVIRUFDUFLQRJH 6WRUHU HW DO 7DPDRNL8VX VXEVHWRIWKRVHUHVXO LWKHOSIXOWRFRQVWUXF
COMMERCIAL COMPLICATIONS
QWDFDGHPLFDQGFRPPHUFLDOFROODERUDWRUVKDYHVXFFHHGHGLQ WKDW KDV HQDEOHG D UHDVRQDEO\ H[WHQVLYH HYDOXDWLRQ DQG WKH \ RI VHYHUDO WUDQVJHQLFPRGHOV IRU SKDUPDFHXWLFDO FDUFLQRJH Q\ LGHQWLÀHGQHHGV IRU DGGLWLRQDORU IXUWKHU LPSURYHGPRGHOV VFHUWDLQFRPPHUFLDOFRPSOLFDWLRQVFDQEHUHVROYHG0DUVKDOO WV FXUUHQWO\ H[LVW RQ JHQHWLFDOO\ PRGLÀHG PLFH WKDW VKRZ FHSWLELOLW\*XOH]LDQ6ZLQJ$OLFHQVHKDVEHHQ SDWHQWVDOORZLQJFRPPHUFLDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKUHHRIWKHJHQHW UHQGSRLQWPRGHOVUHYLHZHGKHUH7J$&7JUDV+DQG3 DUFK OLFHQVHV WR VWXG\ WXPRUVXVFHSWLEOH JHQHWLFDOO\PRGLÀHG 1,+ VFLHQWLVWV DQG1,+ JUDQWHHV EXW OLFHQVHV IRU FRPPHUFLDO GLWLRQDOPRGHOVPXVWEHQHJRWLDWHGRQDXVHUE\XVHUEDVLV7KH QWH[WHQGVWRWKH\HDU0DUVKDOO7KLVVLWXDWLRQKDV UHVHDUFK WRGHYHORSDQGHYDOXDWHDGGLWLRQDO LPSURYHGPRGHOV WLELOLW\ WRFDQFHUGHYHORSPHQWPD\EH LQKLELWHG LIFRPPHUFLDO VDUHQRWÀUVWUHVROYHG5HVRXUFHLQWHQVLYHFROODERUDWLYHDVVHVV SOHWHGUHFHQWO\5RELQVRQDQG0DF'RQDOGEXWIRFXVHG HLYHGWRKDYHVWURQJHURUFRPSOHPHQWDU\DWWULEXWHVWRWKRVHWKDW HUFLDOO\DYDLODEOHPD\EHGLIÀFXOW WRFRRUGLQDWHXQOHVVDJDLQ LVVXH DQG VKDULQJ RI LQWHOOHFWXDO SURSHUW\ FDQ EH PDQDJHG SHDUWRKDYHEHHQLQKLELWHGIURPXVLQJWKH;3$3PRGHOLQ UH[DPSOHXQWLOWKLVOLFHQVLQJLVVXHLVUHVROYHG
VERVIEW OF INDIVIDUAL MODELS
YLHZVRI WKHFXUUHQWO\DYDLODEOHPRVWZLGHO\XVHG WUDQVJHQLF
QLFLW\WHVWLQJKDYHUHFHQWO\EHHQSXEOLVKHG)UHQFKHWDO 7HQQDQW HW DO 6LVWDUH HW DO (DVWLQ HW DO LHWDOYDQ6WHHJHWDOYDQ.UHLMOHWDO$ WVKDVEHHQVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOHVWR:HKDYHIRXQG WWKHSUHVHQWRYHUYLHZRIWKHVHWUDQVJHQLFPLFHE\FRQVLGHULQJ
WKHVSHFLÀFJHQHWLFP DFFHSWHGVWDJHVHQFR WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI LQLWLDWLRQSURPRWLRQ
7KH7J$& Y+ JHQHWLFDOO\ LQLWLDWHG GLYHUVHJURZWKVWLPX
RGLÀFDWLRQIRUHDFKPRGHOLQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKHWKUHHJHQHUDOO\ PSDVVLQJWKHPXOWLVWHSDQGPXOWLVWDJHFRPSOH[SURFHVVGULYLQJ D VLQJOH QRUPDO FHOO LQWR SURJHQ\ RI PDOLJQDQW WXPRU FHOOV DQGSURJUHVVLRQ
Tg.AC
DUDVPRXVH GHYHORSHG E\/HGHU HW DO LV UHJDUGHG DV 6LQFH WKH UDV IDPLO\ RI SURWHLQV DUH FRPPRQ WUDQVGXFHUV IRU ODWRU\UHFHSWRUVLJQDOLQJSDWKZD\VDQDFWLYDWLQJPXWDWLRQLQD
UDV SURWHLQ LV OLNHO\ WXPRULJHQHVLV$QH FRQYH\WRDFHOOSURS HYHULIWKHPRGHOLVG RU VHYHUHO\ UHVWULFWH DFWLYDWHG RU WKH YHU UHSUHVVLYHIRUFHVZLW FRQWDLQVDWOHDVWRQH FRSLHV RI D PLFURLQ SURPRWHUOLQNHGWRY E\DQ69SRO\DG H[SUHVVLRQRIWUDQVJ
WR JHQHUDWH D VXVWDLQHG SUROLIHUDWLYH VLJQDO FDSDEOH RI GULYLQJ [SUHVVHGPXWDWLRQ LQDUDVSURWHLQPLJKWEHH[SHFWHG WKHQ WR HUWLHVRIERWKLQLWLDWLRQDQGVXVWDLQHGJURZWKSURPRWLRQ+RZ HVLJQHGVXFKWKDWWKHH[SUHVVLRQRIWKLVPXWDWHGJHQHLVUHSUHVVHG G QR WXPRU PLJKW EH H[SHFWHG XQOHVV DQG XQWLO WKH JHQH LV \ OLPLWHG SHUPLVVLYH FHOO SRSXODWLRQ LV UHOLHYHG RI DOO JURZWK KLQLWVORFDOFHOOXODUHQYLURQPHQW7KH7J$&KHPL]\JRXVPRXVH
LQYHUWHGUHSHDWDQGDSSUR[LPDWHO\WDQGHPUHSHDWLQWHJUDWHG MHFWHG '1$ FRQVWUXFW FRQVLVWLQJ RI D PRXVH IHWDO ]HWDJORELQ +DUDVZLWKDFWLYDWLQJPXWDWLRQVLQFRGRQVDQGIROORZHG HQ\ODWLRQ WDLO /HGHUHWDO7KRPSVRQHWDO7KH HQHLVUHVWULFWHGWRRQO\FHUWDLQWLVVXHVLWHVSUHVXPDEO\EHFDXVH
RI WKH KLJK WLVVXH V WUDQVJHQHGHSHQGHQW DSSHDUVWREHFHUWDLQ IDYRULQJHYDOXDWLRQV
7RSLFDODSSOLFDWLR DO UHVXOW LQ ,QWHUHVWLQJO\ D FULWLF KHDGWRKHDGRULHQWD FKHPLFDOWUHDWPHQW RI WKLV LQYHUWHG UHSH RSWLPDO IRU WUDQVJHQ PDQ\FRSLHVRIWUDQV GHOHWLRQRI VHTXHQFH LQGXFWLRQ7XPRUVG LQWKLVVDPHUHJLRQ WXPRUIRUPDWLRQ/H RI WKH FKHPLFDO WXP ODFN RI FODULW\ FXUUH FKHPLFDOH[SRVXUHOH
([SHULHQFH ZLWK LQGLFDWHVWKDWGLUHFW YDWLRQRIWUDQVJHQHH FDQ H[SUHVV WUDQVJH SURFHVV LV LPSRUWDQW PRGHO7KH IDLOXUHR PDMRULW\RIJHQRWR[L SFUHVLGLQHSKHQDFH FDUFLQRJHQHVLV DUH Q *HQHUDWLRQRIIRUHVW GRVLQJRI7J$&ZLW
7KHUHDUHSUHFDX 7HVWFRPSRXQGVZLWK DQRORUDFHWRQHPD\ H[SRVXUHVRIUHSHDWHG FRQWHQWRI6LV GLPHWK\OVXIR[LGH' LPSURYH WKH VROXELOL DVVD\ SHUIRUPDQFH WR[LFLW\DQGLQÁDPP @DQGUHVRUFLQRO DEOHPLFURVFRSLFDOO\ DQG)UHQFK$ HVVHQWLDOWRDYRLGFR
7KHPRGHODSSHD QRQJHQRWR[LFPHFKDQ LVWUDWLRQ$V VKRZQ L
SHFLÀFLW\ RI WKH ]HWDJORELQ SURPRWHU VHTXHQFH 7KH UHOLDEOH FKHPLFDOO\LQGXFLEOHVLWHRIWXPRULJHQHVLVLQWKHPDWXUHPRXVH VWHPFHOOVRIWKHGHUPDOKDLUIROOLFOH+DQVHQDQG7HQQDQW RIGHUPDOH[SRVXUHVZLWKWHVWFRPSRXQGV QVRIFHUWDLQFKHPLFDOVRUIXOOWKLFNQHVVZRXQGLQJ&DQQRQHW WXPRU JURZWK WKDW LV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WUDQVJHQH H[SUHVVLRQ DO LQYHUWHG UHSHDWRULHQWDWLRQRI WZRFRSLHVRI WUDQVJHQH LQD WLRQDSSHDUVWREHHVVHQWLDOIRUJHQHUDWLQJDWXPRUUHVSRQVHWR 7KRPSVRQHWDO+RQFKHOHWDO7KHLQWHUDFWLRQ DWZLWK LQWHJUDWLRQ VLWH VHTXHQFH DW WKH d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ÀFXOWZLWKVROXWLRQVWKDWH[FHHGDQDTXHRXV WDUHHWDO7KHDGGLWLRQRIVROYHQWFRPSRQHQWVVXFKDV 062DQGROLYHRLO6LVWDUHHWDO6WROOHWDOWR W\RI K\GURSKLOLF FRPSRXQGVKDVEHHQ VKRZQ WR FRPSURPLVH 7KHPRGHO DSSHDUV WR GHYHORS WXPRUV LQ UHVSRQVH WR GHUPDO DWLRQHJGLQLWURÁXRUREHQ]HQH')1%>$OEHUWHWDO >(DVWLQHWDO@ZKLOHORZOHYHOVRILQÁDPPDWLRQREVHUY DSSHDU WR EH WROHUDWHG 0RVHU HW DO 1\ODQGHU)UHQFK
FDUHIXOGHÀQLWLRQRI WKHXSSHUGRVH OLPLW LQ VWXG\GHVLJQ LV QIRXQGLQJLQWHUSUHWDWLRQVRIWHVWUHVXOWV UVWRKDYHYDOXHIRUWHVWLQJXVLQJDGHUPDOURXWHRIH[SRVXUHIRU LVPVRIFRPSRXQGVLQWHQGHGIRUHLWKHUWRSLFDORUV\VWHPLFDGPLQ Q7DEOHVDQG WKHPRGHO UHVSRQGV WRDJHQWV WKDWPD\
LQYROYHHVWURJHQDU\ XWLQJ WR WXPRULJHQHV SHUR[LGHDQGREHQ] LQJRI7J$&PLFH( WXPRUJURZWKSURPR ,I LW LVQRW LPSRUWDQW FDUFLQRJHQ EXW UDWK SDWKZD\VOHDGLQJWR WR GLVWLQJXLVK UHO\LQ FRPSOHWHFDUFLQRJHQ LPSRUWDQWGLVWLQFWLRQ FOHDUIURPDYDLODEOHW DVWXPRUSURPRWLRQD DOO\LQWHUIHUHZLWKDQ DPL[WXUHRIPHOSKDO VLJQDOSURGXFHGE\7 ZKLFKKDYHEH WRWKHSRVLWLYHÀQGLQ FDVHDQHJDWLYH7J$ LQDJHQRWR[LFLW\DVVD LQYHVWLJDWLRQRIWKLVL LVLQWHQGHGIRUKXPD DFKLHYHGLQWKHPRXV DWWKHVNLQVLWHRIDSS H[SRVXUH\HDUPRX
)RU WKH7JUDV+ PXWDWHG7JUDV+P +DUDVVHTXHQFHXQG 7KHPRGHOLV WLVVXHUHVWULFWHG7KH WKHDFWLRQVRIDVXVWD VLJQDOWUDQVGXFLQJUD WLVVXHVDUHUHFHLYLQJ SUHGLFWLRQWKDWDJHQ DFRRSHUDWLQJRQFRJ LQWXPRUEXUGHQ
7KHVHSUHGLFWLRQ EHQ]HQH F\FORSKRVS \OQLWURVDPLQH 1HWK SURFDUED]LQH WKLRWHS LQFUHDVHGWXPRUEXUG XQH[SHFWHG HTXLYRF
OK\GURFDUERQRUDQGURJHQUHFHSWRUPHGLDWHGSDWKZD\VFRQWULE LV)XUWKHUPRUH WKHNQRZQVNLQ WXPRUSURPRWHUV73$EHQ]R\O \OSFKORURSKHQROKDYHDOVRWHVWHGSRVLWLYHIROORZLQJGHUPDOGRV DVWLQHWDOSURYLGLQJIXUWKHULQGLFDWLRQVWKDWDFWLYDWLRQRI WLQJSDWKZD\VOHDGVUDSLGO\WRVNLQWXPRULJHQHVLVLQ7J$&PLFH WRIXUWKHU LQYHVWLJDWH WKDWD WHVWFRPSRXQGPD\EHDJHQRWR[LF HU PRUH LPSRUWDQW WR DVVHVV SRWHQWLDO WR DFWLYDWH QRQJHQRWR[LF WXPRULJHQHVLVWKLVPRGHODSSHDUVWREHXVHIXO,WPD\EHGLIÀFXOW J XSRQ 7J$& VWXG\ ÀQGLQJV D SXUH WXPRU SURPRWRU IURP D ZRUNLQJWKURXJKDQRQJHQRWR[LFPHFKDQLVPEXWWKLVFRXOGEHDQ IRUSURGXFWGHYHORSPHQWGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ)XUWKHUPRUHLWLVQRW HVWLQJGDWDWKDWLIDFRPSRXQGKDVERWKSRWHQWPXWDJHQLFDVZHOO OSUROLIHUDWLYHDFWLYLW\ZKHWKHUWKHPXWDJHQLFDFWLYLW\PLJKWDFWX GUHGXFHDSSDUHQWWXPRULJHQLFLW\LQ7J$&:RXOGIRUH[DPSOH DQZLWKSKRUEROP\ULVWDWHDFHWDWH73$UHGXFHWKHWXPRU 3$DORQH"&RXOGWKLVDFFRXQWIRUWKHQHJDWLYHÀQGLQJVZLWK:< HQVKRZQWREHFODVWRJHQLF*DOORZD\HWDODVFRPSDUHG JVREVHUYHGLQWKLVPRGHOZLWKFORÀEUDWH",IVXFKZHUHWUXO\WKH &VWXG\ÀQGLQJZLWKDQDJHQW\LHOGLQJSRVLWLYHUHOHYDQWÀQGLQJV \PD\EHXQLQIRUPDWLYHDQGSRVVLEO\PLVOHDGLQJ0RUHWKRURXJK VVXHLVZDUUDQWHG6LWXDWLRQVVRPHWLPHVDULVHZKHQDFRPSRXQG QV\VWHPLFDGPLQLVWUDWLRQEXWKXPDQH[SRVXUHOHYHOVFDQQRWEH HE\V\VWHPLFGRVLQJURXWHV$FKLHYLQJKLJKORFDOFRQFHQWUDWLRQV OLFDWLRQFRXOGDGGYDOXHRYHUWKHSHUIRUPDQFHRIDV\VWHPLFORZ VHDVVD\LQVXFKFLUFXPVWDQFHV
TgrasH2
PRGHOXQOLNHZLWK7J$& WKH WUDQVJHQHUDVVHTXHQFH LVQRW LFHFRQWDLQ WKUHHFRSLHVRIFRQVWLWXWLYHO\H[SUHVVHGKXPDQF HUWUDQVFULSWLRQDOFRQWURORILWVRZQSURPRWHU6XHPL]XHWDO QRWLQLWLDWHGWKHUHIRUHDQGH[SUHVVLRQRIWKHWUDQVJHQHLVQRW PRGHOPD\EHFRQFHSWXDOL]HGWKHQDVSUHSURPRWHGWKURXJK LQHGHOHYDWHGVWHDG\VWDWHH[SUHVVLRQRIWKHJURZWKVWLPXODWRU\ VSURWHLQ7KHVLPSOLVWLFFRQVLGHUDWLRQWKHQLVWKDWWKLVPRGHO·V DVXVWDLQHGJURZWKSURPRWLQJLQÁXHQFH7KLVOHDGVWRWKHORJLFDO RWR[LFLQVXOWUHVXOWLQJLQDVWDEOHPXWDWLRQLQWKHWUDQVJHQHLQ HQHRULQDWXPRUVXSSUHVVRUJHQHFRXOGUHVXOWLQDUDSLGULVH
VDSSHDUDFFXUDWHVLQFHH[SRVXUHVWRJHQRWR[LFDJHQWVLQFOXGLQJ
KDPLGH SKHQDFHWLQ SFUHVLGLQH GLHWK\OQLWURVDPLQH GLPHWK \OQLWURVRXUHD (18 JO\FLGRO 1PHWK\OQLWURVRXUHD 018 DDQGYLQ\OF\FORKH[HQHGLHSR[LGHUHVXOW LQVLJQLÀFDQWO\ HQVZLWKLQPRQWKVRIGRVLQJ7DEOHVDQG7KHRQH DO ÀQGLQJ REVHUYHG ZLWK PHOSKDODQ GRVLQJ GHVHUYHV FDUHIXO
FRQVLGHUDWLRQ8VXLH IRUHVWRPDFKSDSLOORP RIWKHIHPDOHVGLH ,QFRQWUDVW7J$&P DQGPDOHEXWQRWIHP ZHHN,3GRVLQJZLWK PDOHVVKRZHGDVWDW QRVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLÀ WHVWHG³PJNJ
7KHVHGDWDXQGH ZLWKWKLVDVZHOODVZ
$´SUHSURPRWHG EXUGHQ LQ UHVSRQVH SURPRWHUV+RZHYHU SUROLIHUDWRUVFORÀEUD PHFKDQLVPVRIFDUFL DJHDQGPD\DGGLWLRQ WKLRXUHDGLR[DQH WR[LFWUDQVVSHFLHVUR 7KHH[SHFWDWL FDUFLQRJHQV DUH VRP HVWUDGLRO7DEOH XDWHGLQWKLVPRGHOL VXFKDVSKRUEROHVWH WLRQDO QXFOHDU UHFHS UHFHSWRUDQGDU\OK\
:KLOHWKHKXPDQ ÀQGLQJV LV OHJLWLPDWH WKHVHÀQGLQJV ,IKXPDQVZHUHVLPL
WDO,QWKDWVWXG\RIVXUYLYLQJIHPDOHPLFHGHYHORSHG DVDIWHUGRVLQJZLWKPJNJPHOSKDODQ,3ZHHNO\6HYHQ
GDVDUHVXOWRI,3LQMHFWLRQLQGXFHGDEGRPLQDOFDYLW\DGKHVLRQ LFHKDYHWROHUDWHGRUDODQGWRSLFDOGRVLQJZLWKPJNJZHHN DOH3²PLFHWROHUDWHGPJNJZHHNGHOLYHUHGDVvSHU PJNJPHOSKDODQLQSURS\OHQHJO\FRO,QWKH3²VWXG\ LVWLFDOO\VLJQLÀFDQWLQFUHDVHLQWXPRUVDWWKLVKLJKGRVHZKLOH FDQWLQFUHDVHVZHUHQRWHGLQHLWKHUVH[DWWKHQH[WORZHUGRVH vSHUZHHN6WRUHUHWDO UVFRUH WZR IDLUO\FRQVLVWHQWDQGQRWHZRUWK\ WUHQGV LQ WKHGDWD LWKRWKHUWUDQVJHQLFPRGHOV
µPRGHOPLJKWQRWEHH[SHFWHGWRGHYHORSDQDFFHOHUDWHGWXPRU WR LQGLUHFW DFWLQJ QRU QRQJHQRWR[LF FDUFLQRJHQV QRU WXPRU WKHOLYHU WXPRUVVHHQIROORZLQJH[SRVXUHV WR WKHSHUR[LVRPH WHGLHWK\OKH[\OSKWKDODWHDQG:<VXJJHVW WKDW LQGLUHFW QRJHQHVLVDUHGHWHFWDEOHWKDWPD\LQYROYHR[LGDWLYH'1$GDP DOO\LQYROYHDOWHUHGJURZWKGHUHJXODWLRQ7DEOH(WK\OHQH DQGHWK\ODFU\ODWHUHSUHVHQWH[DPSOHVRIDGGLWLRQDOQRQJHQR GHQWFDUFLQRJHQVWKDW WHVWHGSRVLWLYHLQ7JUDV+8VXLHWDO RQV IRU WKLVPRGHO WRGHWHFWDOOKXPDQUHOHYDQWQRQJHQRWR[LF HZKDW GLPPHG E\ WKH QHJDWLYH ÀQGLQJV UHSRUWHG ZLWK F 2WKHUQRQJHQRWR[LFPHFKDQLVPVZKLFKKDYHQRWEHHQHYDO QFOXGHIRUH[DPSOHDFWLYDWRUVRIJURZWKSURPRWLRQE\DJHQWV UVPH]HUHLQRUPLUH[DQGRWKHUPHFKDQLVPV LQYROYLQJDGGL WRUPHGLDWHG SDWKZD\V VXFK DV WKRVH DFWLYDWHG E\ DQGURJHQ
GURFDUERQUHFHSWRUDJRQLVWV OLYHUUHOHYDQFHRIWKHSRVLWLYHSHUR[LVRPHSUROLIHUDWRUOLYHUWXPRU O\TXHVWLRQHG *RQ]DOH]3HWHUVHW DO:DUGHW DO DUHQRWXQUHDVRQDEOHDQGQRWVRVXUSULVLQJLQVXFKDPRXVHPRGHO ODUO\HQGRZHGZLWKDKLJKHUGHQVLW\RIKLJKDIÀQLW\SHUR[LVRPH
SUROLIHUDWRUDFWLYDWHG WREHVLPLODUO\DWKLJK FRQGLWLRQVZLWKWKLVF DOVRVHUYHVDVDJRRG LQWUDQVJHQLFPRGHOV RIWKHOLNHO\PHFKDQL LFDODVVHVVPHQWVDUH XQGHUVWDQGLQJRIPH
7KH LQFRQVLVWHQF FDUFLQRJHQVLQGLFDWH FDUFLQRJHQV DQG KHO WHVWLQJRIQRQJHQRWR ZLGHO\HQFRPSDVVLQ WKDQHLWKHU7J$&3 TXLWHHIÀFLHQWDWLGHQ PLJKWEHGHULYHGIR EHGLIÀFXOWWRGUDZ
,QYHVWLJDWLRQVRI FDUFLQRJHQV(180 SURYLGH DQ LQGLFDWLR LQGXFWLRQLQWKLVPR FRQVLVWHQWO\REVHUYH KRZHYHUWUDQVJHQH XUHWKDQHLQGXFHGWXP WXPRUVLQGXFHGE\X PXWDWLRQVDQG IRUD LQ WXPRU VXSSUHVVRU LQGXFHGE\JHQRWR[L XVHIXOIRUUHJXODWRU\
7KLVPRGHOGHVHU 6LQFH 7J$& KDV EH 7JUDV+DQG3² GRVHGE\WKHGHUPDO IRUFKHPLFDOVWKDWZ SHUKDSVXQGHUFLUFX LQURGHQWVIROORZLQJ
7KHUROHRIWKHS RIWKHJHQRPHµ/DQ SURWHLQLVFULWLFDOWRP UHSDLUDQGFHOOXODUG WKHSJHQHDUHVHH DOQXPHU
DOSKDUHFHSWRUVLQOLYHURURWKHUWLVVXHVLWHVZHPLJKWEHH[SHFWHG ULVNWROLYHURURWKHUWXPRULQGXFWLRQVXQGHUVXFKFKURQLFH[SRVXUH ODVVRIDJHQWVDQGWKLVZRXOGEHLPSRUWDQWWRNQRZ7KLVÀQGLQJ H[DPSOHWKDWWKHKXPDQUHOHYDQFHRIDOOSRVLWLYHWXPRUÀQGLQJV VKRXOGQRWEHDVVXPHGLQFDVHVZKHQWKHUHLVDFOHDUXQGHUVWDQGLQJ VPVDQGDFFXUDWHNQRZOHGJHRISLYRWDOVSHFLHVGLIIHUHQFHV(PSLU RIWHQLQVXIÀFLHQWDQGH[SHULPHQWDOVWUDWHJLHVSURYLGLQJLPSURYHG FKDQLVPVZLOODOZD\VEHLPSRUWDQW \ RI SRVLWLYH UHVSRQVHV ZLWK 7JUDV+ PLFH WR QRQJHQRWR[LF VWKHSRWHQWLDOIRUWKHPRGHOWRUHVSRQGWRFHUWDLQQRQJHQRWR[LF SZLWK DVVHVVPHQWV RI QRQJHQRWR[LFPHFKDQLVPV EXW IXUWKHU [LFFDUFLQRJHQVZRXOGEHKHOSIXO7KLVPRGHOPD\EHWKHPRVW JDVDVFUHHQWRLGHQWLI\PRUHPRGHVRIFKHPLFDOFDUFLQRJHQHVLV ²RU;3$²²3²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ÀFLHQWO\KLJKH[SRVXUHVFDQQRWEHDFKLHYHG V\VWHPLFGRVLQJURXWHV
P53+/– MODEL
SURWHLQWRPDLQWDLQJHQRPLFVWDELOLW\DQGVHUYHDV´ WKHJXDUGLDQ
H0RUULVLVZHOODSSUHFLDWHG3URSHUIXQFWLRQRIWKH DLQWDLQLQJDSSURSULDWHUHJXODWLRQRIFHOOF\FOHDSRSWRVLV'1$ LIIHUHQWLDWLRQ,W LVQRWVRVXUSULVLQJ WKHQ WKDWPXWDWLRQVLQ QLQRIKXPDQFDQFHUV+ROOVWHLQHWDO*UHHQEODWWHW RXVDQLPDODQGFHOOXODUPRGHOVZLWKHQJLQHHUHGRUQDWXUDOGHIHFWV
LQSIXQFWLRQDUHS FHOOXODUGLIIHUHQWLDWLR RUJHQHWLFDOO\HQJLQHH VWDWLFDFWLYDWLRQRIS
&HOOVZLWKGHÀFL WR WUDYHUVH WKH *RWKHVWDJHRIWKHF PRUHVLQFH WKHFHOOX DSRSWRWLFGHDWKLVFR DVKRUWHUFHOOF\FOHD DVFODVVLFDOO\´SUHSU JHQHWLFDOO\PRGLI\LQ DUHPRUHOLNHO\WRGH DUHPRUHJURZWKVWLP SJHQHVTXLFNO\GH WKDWQRUPDOEDFNJURX HIÀFLHQWO\ OHDG WR WX VXJJHVWV WKDW UHGXFW PDOLJQDQWSURJUHVVLR
7KLVPRGHOXVHVD GHULYHGIURPSJH PLFHDUHKHWHUR]\JRX DOOHOHWKDWLVQRWWUDQV 6WXG\ÀQGLQJVFRQÀUP DJHQWV NQRZQ WR FDX PHOSKDODQSFUHVLGLQ LWLYHWXPRULJHQVLQWK JHQRWR[LFFDUFLQRJHQ WR WHWUDFKORUR FORÀEUDWHZHUHQHJDWL KLJKUHOLDELOLW\IRULGH WR[LFFDUFLQRJHQVDGG ZKHWKHUDJHQRWR[LF UHVSRQVH LV LPSRUWDQ FDQEHHVSHFLDOO\KHO ÀQGLQJV DUHPDUJLQD V\VWHPLFH[SRVXUHVZ
5HFHQWGDWD5HF 'RQHKRZHU HW DO FDUHIXOO\VWDJHGDVVH SRXQGVIRUDVFRPS WRFRPSDUHDQG DFFRUGDQFHZLWKHDUO LQJVUHPDLQORZIRU LQFLGHQFHWKDWH[FHHG RUDO GRVLQJ7KH UHV
URQHWRG\VUHJXODWLRQRIFHOOF\FOHDSRSWRVLV'1$UHSDLUDQG QDQGFKHPLFDORUUDGLDWLRQLQGXFHG'1$GDPDJLQJHYHQWV UHGFHOOXODURQFRJHQHLPEDODQFHZLOOOHDGWRDQDSSDUHQWKRPHR HQWSSURWHLQ IXQFWLRQKDYHEHHQVKRZQ'RQHKRZHUHWDO FHOO F\FOHPRUHTXLFNO\DQG WR VSHQG OHVV IUDFWLRQDO WLPH LQ HOOF\FOHZKHQ'1$GDPDJHLVNQRZQWREHUHSDLUHG)XUWKHU ODUPDFKLQHU\UHVSRQVLEOHIRUVKXQWLQJGDPDJHGFHOOV WRZDUG PSURPLVHGPRUHGDPDJHGFHOOVDUHSURQHWRVXUYLYHWKURXJK QGHQWHUFHOOGLYLVLRQ6XFKFHOOVPLJKWWKHQEHFRQFHSWXDOL]HG RPRWHGµDQGSURQHWRFKHPLFDOLQLWLDWLRQ0XWDWLRQDORURWKHU JLQLWLDWLQJHYHQWVDUHPRUHOLNHO\WREHUHWDLQHGDQGWKXVWXPRUV YHORSLQUHVSRQVHWRJHQRWR[LFDJHQWVDVRSSRVHGWRWKRVHWKDW XODWRU\RU WXPRUSURPRWLQJ$QLPDOVZLWKNQRFNRXWRIERWK YHORSVSRQWDQHRXVWXPRUV'RQHKRZHUHWDOVXJJHVWLQJ QGJHQRWR[LFLQVXOWVDQGHGLWLQJHUURUVWKDWFDQQRWEHSURFHVVHG PRULJHQHVLV )XUWKHUPRUH DGGLWLRQDO H[SHULPHQWDO HYLGHQFH LRQ LQ S JHQH GRVDJH DOVR FRQWULEXWHV WR HQKDQFHPHQW RI Q.HPSHWDO ÀIWKJHQHUDWLRQEDFNFURVVRQWR&%/PLFHRIDIRXQGHUOLQH QHWLFDOO\PRGLÀHG$%6YHPEU\RQLFPRXVHFHOOV7KHVH VFRQWDLQLQJDZLOGW\SHSWXPRUVXSSUHVVRUJHQHDQGDQXOO FULEHGRUWUDQVODWHG'RQHKRZHUHWDO+DUYH\HWDO WKHH[SHFWDWLRQVIRUWKLVPRGHOZLWKIHZH[FHSWLRQV*HQRWR[LF VHGHOHWLRQVRUPXWDWLRQV VXFK DVEHQ]HQH F\FORSKRVSKDPLGH H1PHWK\OQLWURVRXUHDHWFVHH7DEOHVDQGDUHSRV H3²PRGHO&ULWLFDOWHVWVRIVHQVLWLYLW\WRDJHQWVZLWKQRQ LFPHFKDQLVPVVHH7DEOHVDQG LQFOXGLQJH[SRVXUHV GLEHQ]RSDUDGLR[LQ 7&'' R[\PHWKRORQH :< DQG YHZKLOHFHVWUDGLROWHVWUHVXOWVZHUHHTXLYRFDO7KHPRGHO·V QWLI\LQJJHQRWR[LFFDUFLQRJHQVDQGIRUQRWLGHQWLI\LQJQRQJHQR VFRQÀGHQFHWRVWXG\LQWHUSUHWDWLRQVZKHUHDQDSSUHFLDWLRQIRU RUQRQJHQRWR[LFPHFKDQLVPPD\EHXQGHUO\LQJD WXPRULJHQLF W WRUHJXODWRU\DQGSURGXFWGHYHORSPHQWGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ7KLV SIXOZKHQJHQRWR[LFLW\WHVWLQJEDWWHU\UHVXOWVDUHLQFRQVLVWHQWRU OO\SRVLWLYH DQGSURSRVHGSDWWHUQVRI FOLQLFDOXVH DQGH[SHFWHG RXOGEHQHÀWIURPVXFKNQRZOHGJH LRHWDOWDNHQLQFRQWH[WZLWKRWKHUSXEOLVKHGÀQGLQJV 6WRUHU HW DO KDYH JHQHUDWHG LQWHUHVW LQ D PRUH VVPHQWRI3PRGHOSHUIRUPDQFHZLWKGRVLQJRIVWXG\FRP DUHGWRPRQWKV:KLOHWKHVWXG\ZDVQRWVSHFLÀFDOO\GHVLJQHG
PRQWKWXPRUGDWDWKHUHVXOWV5HFLRHWDOLQGLFDWHLQ LHUGDWD'RQHKRZHUHWDOWKDWEDFNJURXQGWXPRUÀQG PRQWKV)XUWKHUPRUHEHQ]HQHLQKDODWLRQUHVXOWHGLQDWXPRU HGWKDWSUHYLRXVO\VHHQDWPRQWKVXVLQJPD[LPDOO\WROHUDWHG XOWV DFURVV VWXGLHV LQPDOH DQG IHPDOHS²PLFH WUHDWHG
ZLWKWKHSRVLWLYHFRQ WKDWRQO\RIWKH FORVHUH[DPLQDWLRQR DUH FRQVLGHUHG VHSD UDUHWXPRUWKUHVKROG VWXG\DUPV IDLOHG WR DUPV MXVWPHW VWDWLV WROHUDWHGGRVHWKHE FRQWUROKDVQRWEHHQ
6LQFH WKH3²
PLFH RI WKH RULJLQDO OLQHRQO\RIRULJ FKURPRVRPH FR UHWDLQHG6YVHTX RSSRUWXQLWLHV WR LQY FRQWUDVWHG ZLWK WKH PHFKDQLVPVRIJHQH RIJHQHWLFDOWHUDWLRQ SKHQROSKWKDOHLQLQG HUR]\JRVLW\ ZKLFK WKDWEHQ]HQH JRVLW\ DSSHDULQJ WR WKDW SFUHVLGLQH EOD PXWDWLRQV LQSEX ORFL FHUWDLQ RI ZKL UHGXFHGSJHQHGR PROHFXODUDQDO\VHVL HVLVDQGSRWHQWLDOO\W VWDWLVWLFDOO\ LQVLJQLÀ )XWKHUPRUHWKHQHJD LQGLFDWH WKDW IXUWKH OLPLWDWLRQVDQGDSSD LPSURYHG VHQVLWLYLW\ VWXG\GHVLJQHJ LPDOO\WROHUDWHGGRV
7KHSURWHLQHQFR ;3$JHQHLVLQYROY QXFOHRWLGHH[FLVLRQ VSHFLÀFLQKHULWHGORV WXPRUV DQG GHYHORS ;3$²²NQRFNRXWP 89OLJKWLQGXFHGVN
WUROSFUHVLGLQHDWDGRVHRIPJNJGD\E\JDYDJHLQGLFDWH VWXGLHVZDVMXGJHGWREHQHJDWLYH6WRUHUHWDO8SRQ IWKHGDWDKRZHYHULIWKHPDOHDQGIHPDOHDUPVRIHDFKVWXG\ UDWHO\ DQG D VWDWLVWLFDO WKUHVKROG UDWKHU WKDQ WKH OHVV VWULQJHQW LVFRQVLGHUHGIRUWKLVSRVLWLYHFRQWUROFRPSRXQGWKHQRI PHHW VWDWLVWLFDO VLJQLÀFDQFH DQGDQ DGGLWLRQDORI VWXG\ WLFDO VLJQLÀFDQFH$IWHU PRQWKVRI H[SRVXUH WR DPD[LPDOO\ ODGGHUWXPRUUHVSRQVHRI3²PLFHWRWKHSFUHVLGLQHSRVLWLYH FRQVLVWHQWO\UREXVW PRGHO UHSUHVHQWV WKHÀIWKJHQHUDWLRQEDFNFURVVRQWR&%O IRXQGHU VWUDLQ GHULYHG XVLQJ WKH 6Y HPEU\RQLF VWHP FHOO LQDO6Y'1$LVUHWDLQHGH[FHSWIRUWKHJHQHWLFDOO\VHOHFWHG QWDLQLQJ WKH JHQHWLFDOO\ PRGLÀHG S DOOHOH 7KH OLQNDJH RI HQFHÁDQNLQJWKHPRGLÀ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ÀQGLQJVZLWKJO\FLGRODQGGLDPLQRWROXHQH7DEOH U HIIRUWV DUH QHHGHG WR HLWKHU EHWWHU XQGHUVWDQG WKH PRGHO·V UHQWUHVLVWDQFHWRWKRVHPXWDJHQLFFDUFLQRJHQVRUWRLQYHVWLJDWH RI WKHPRGHO WR WKHVH FRPSRXQGVXQGHU DPRGLÀHGSURWRFRO PRQWKGRVLQJZLWKDQLPDOVSHUJURXSDWZHOOGHÀQHGPD[ HVDQGRSWLPL]HGGRVLQJVFKHGXOHV
XPA-/–/P53+/–
GHGE\WKH[HURGHUPDSLJPHQWRVXPFRPSOHPHQWDWLRQJURXS$ HGLQWKHUHFRJQLWLRQRI'1$GDPDJHDQGLVFULWLFDOIRUSURSHU
UHSDLU IXQFWLRQ+XPDQVZLWK[HURGHUPDSLJPHQWRVXPZLWKD VRIWKH;3$JHQHDUHK\SHUVHQVLWLYHWR89OLJKWLQGXFHGVNLQ PHQW RI RWKHU LQWHUQDO QHRSODVLDV .UDHPHU HW DO 7KH LFH OLNH;3$SDWLHQWVGHPRQVWUDWHLQFUHDVHGVXVFHSWLELOLW\WR LQWXPRUV'H9ULHVHWDO1DNDQHHWDO
'1$VWUDQGEUHD FURVVOLQNLQJ UHDFWLR DUH NQRZQ WR UHVXOW WKHVH IRUPV RI '1$ PXWDWLRQLQFRUSRUDWL GHYHORSPHQWIROORZL DVEHQ]R>D@S\UHQHG EHQ]DQWKUDFHQHGH9 '1$DGGXFWVQRUPD SDWKZD\DUHHOHYDWH WKHQ DUHQRW FKHPLF LQLWLDWHGLIH[SRVHGW WKDW PD\ SURGXFH Q HYHQLQGLUHFW'1$G E\VXFKDPRGHO
)XUWKHU HYDOXDWLR FKHPLFDOFDUFLQRJHQ WRPRQWKVWRLPS 7R EURDGHQ EH\RQGWKRVHWKDWDUH ZDVFURVVEUHGZLWK DVWKDWGHVFULEHGDER HPEU\RQLFVWHPFHOO ;3$²² PRGHO KDG E EDFNJURXQGXVHGIRU OLQHVZDVIRXQGDVZ IRU H[DPSOH IROORZ 6XFKPRGLÀFDWLRQVZ YDULHW\RIFRPSRXQG WKUHHPRGHOV7DEOHV PRWLRQSURJUHVVLRQ HQKDQFHGRZLQJWRS E\FHUWDLQPXWDJHQV
6LQFHWKHELJHQLF WKH 3² PRGHO IR GLIIHUHQFHVPLJKWEH ORVVRI;3$IXQFWLRQ WR HYHU\ SRVLWLYHLQ;3$²²3 DWRSGRVHKDOIWKDWR GRVHRILQGLH UDUHUHQDODGHQRPDZ 1RQJHQRWR[LFURGHQW DWLYH DV ZHOO LQ ;3 XQH[SHFWHG 3² S UHSOLFDWHG LQ ;3$²²
NV'1$DGGXFWIRUPDWLRQ'1$QXFOHRWLGHGLPHUL]DWLRQDQG QV E\ FKHPLFDO JHQRWR[LF FDUFLQRJHQV RU GDPDJLQJ89 OLJKW LQ JHQHPXWDWLRQV ,QHIÀ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
QV RI WKH;3$²²PRGHOZLWK RWKHU NQRZQ GLUHFWO\ JHQRWR[LF VOHGLQYHVWLJDWRUVWRH[WHQGWKHSURWRFROGRVLQJGXUDWLRQIURP URYHVWDWLVWLFDOSRZHUWRDQDFFHSWDEOHOHYHOYDQ6WHHJHWDO WKH UDQJH RI WLVVXH VXVFHSWLELOLW\ DQG FDUFLQRJHQ VHQVLWLYLW\ GHSHQGHQWVSHFLÀFDOO\XSRQ1(5SDWKZD\VWKH;3$²²PRGHO WKH3²PRXVH7KH3²PRGHOFKRVHQZDVQRWWKHVDPH YHEXWUDWKHUGHULYHGIURPDGLIIHUHQWJHQHWLFDOO\HQJLQHHUHG OLQH-DFNVHWDO%RWKWKLVFKRVHQ3²PRGHODQGWKH HHQ GHULYHG IURP &%O EDFNJURXQGV ZKLFK LV WKH VDPH WKH3²PRGHOGHVFULEHGDERYH&URVVLQJWKHVHWZRWUDQVJHQLF DVKRSHGWRLPSURYHWKHVSHHGDQGUREXVWQHVVRIWXPRULJHQHVLV LQJ H[SRVXUHV WR EHQ]R>D@S\UHQH YDQ 2RVWURP HW DO HUHLQFRUSRUDWHGPRUHUHFHQWO\KRZHYHUDQGWKHQXPEHUDQG VWKDWKDYHEHHQHYDOXDWHGDUHQRWDVJUHDWDVWKRVHIRUWKHRWKHU WR:LWKLQRXULQIRUPDOGLVFXVVLRQRILQLWLDWLRQSUR WKLVPRGHOFRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHGSUHSURPRWHGDQGSURJUHVVLRQ LQVXIÀFLHQF\DQGHYHQIXUWKHUSURQHWRFKHPLFDOLQLWLDWLRQ RZLQJWRWKHORVVRI;3$ ;3$²²3²PRGHOZRXOGEHH[SHFWHGWRSHUIRUPVLPLODUO\WR OORZLQJ H[SRVXUH WR JHQRWR[LF DQG QRQJHQRWR[LF DJHQWV DQ\ DWWULEXWDEOHWRHLWKHUWKHH[WHQGHGPRQWKDVVD\GHVLJQWRWKH RUWRWKHVOLJKWO\GLIIHUHQWSJHQRW\SH$VVKRZQLQ7DEOHV JHQRWR[LF DJHQW WKDW WHVWHG SRVLWLYH LQ 3² VLPLODUO\ WHVWHG ²7KHKXPDQJHQRWR[LFFDUFLQRJHQSKHQDFHWLQZDVWHVWHGDW IWKHGRVHXVHGIRUHYDOXDWLQJWKH3²PRQWKDVVD\$WWKH WWKH;3$²²3²DVVD\ZDVFRQVLGHUHGQHJDWLYH+RZHYHUD
DVUHSRUWHGZLWKGRVHGHSHQGHQWK\SHUSODVLDVHHQLQDOODQLPDOV FDUFLQRJHQVWKDWWHVWHGQHJDWLYHLQ3²JHQHUDOO\WHVWHGQHJ $²²3²$PRQJ WKHVH QRQJHQRWR[LF DJHQWV WKH VRPHZKDW RVLWLYH ÀQGLQJ ZLWK WKH LPPXQRVXSSUHVVDQW F\FORVSRULQ ZDV 3² 7KH SHUR[LVRPH SUROLIHUDWRU GLHWK\OKH[\OSKWKDODWH
'(+3ZKLFKSURG DWLYHUHVXOWLQ;3$²²
D WUXH QHJDWLYH2Q WHVWHG QHJDWLYH LQ 3 )LQDOO\ ZKLOH SURGX XQHTXLYRFDOSRVLWLYH FLQRJHQVUHPDLQWRE GDWDVXJJHVWEXWKDY VSHFLÀFLW\RIWKH3 SXUHQRQJHQRWR[LFP 7KHSRVLWLYHÀQGLQJ '(6 LQ WKLVPRGHO %KDWHWDODQ WKH FODVWRJHQLF SRVL PD\EH FRQWULEXWLQJ XQFOHDULIWKHH[WHQG 3²PRGHOZRXOG
%\WKHHQGRI DQG5HVHDUFK&'( QRJHQLFLW\DVVD\DOW WKHVHDVVD\V7KHVH RUDWLYHSURJUDPDQG FULWHULDIRUVHOHFWLRQ LQWHJUDWLRQ RI WKH UH FDUFLQRJHQLFLW\SRWH
7ZRWKLUGVRIDOW PRGHO$OWKRXJKDOOE WR EH JHQRWR[LF UHV 3RVLWLYH JHQRWR[LF U YLWUR FODVWRJHQLFLW\ L OXQJ &+/ FHOOV RU W\SKLPXULXPVWUDLQ7 WKHVWDQGDUG,&+JHQ DVVD\DVZHOODVLQR
3RVLWLYHUHVXOWVK IRUSURGXFWV WKDWZH IHZ\HDU UDW FDUFL ZHUHQHJDWLYHLQWKH QRPDVHQWHURFKURP O\PSKRPDVDQGWHV
7KHSHUIRUPDQFH YDULDEOHZLWKQRFOHD
XFHGHTXLYRFDOÀQGLQJVLQ3²\LHOGHGDQXQHTXLYRFDOQHJ SVXJJHVWLQJWKDWWKH3²HTXLYRFDOÀQGLQJPD\UHSUHVHQW WKH RWKHU KDQG WKH SHUR[LVRPHSUROLIHUDWRU:<ZKLFK ² \LHOGHG SRVLWLYH ÀQGLQJV LQ;3$²² DIWHU RQO\ PRQWKV FLQJ HTXLYRFDO ÀQGLQJV LQ 3² FHVWUDGLRO SURGXFHG DQ UHVXOW LQ;3$²²3²LQPRQWKV*HQRWR[LF URGHQWQRQFDU HWHVWHGLQ;3$²²3²&ROOHFWLYHO\WKHVHIHZVHWVRIDGGLWLRQDO HQRW\HWHVWDEOLVKHGWKDWWKLVELJHQLFPRGHOPD\UHWDLQWKHKLJK ²PRGHOWRDYRLGQRQFDUFLQRJHQVDQGLQGLUHFWFDUFLQRJHQVZLWK RGHVRIDFWLRQEXWDSSHDUWRKDYHJDLQHGDGGLWLRQDOVHQVLWLYLW\ VZLWK:<DQGZLWKFHVWUDGLRODQGGLHWK\OVWLOEHVWURO VXJJHVW WKDW'1$DGGXFWV WKDWKDYHEHHQ UHSRUWHGZLWK'(6 GHVWURJHQV&DYDOLHULHWDO6KLPRPXUDHWDODQG WLYH ÀQGLQJV UHSRUWHGZLWK:< *DOORZD\ HW DO WR WKH REVHUYHG WXPRULJHQLF DFWLYLW\ RI WKHVHPROHFXOHV ,W LV HGPRQWKSURWRFROGXUDWLRQLQWKHVLQJOHWUDQVJHQLFNQRFNRXW \LHOGVLPLODUUHVXOWV
REGULATORY EXPERIENCE
WKH)RRGDQG'UXJ$GPLQLVWUDWLRQ·V&HQWHUIRU'UXJ(YDOXDWLRQ 5KDGUHFHLYHGDERXWSURWRFROVSURSRVLQJDOWHUQDWLYHFDUFL HUQDWLYHVDQGKDGUHFHLYHGÀQDOUHVXOWVIRUDERXWWZRGR]HQRI UHVXOWVVXSSOHPHQWZKDWKDVEHHQOHDUQHGIURPWKH,/6,FROODE RWKHUSXEOLVKHGGDWD,VVXHVWKDWDUHVWLOOEHLQJHYDOXDWHGLQFOXGH RIWKHEHVWPRGHOSURWRFROLVVXHVIRUWKHYDULRXVDVVD\VDQG VXOWV RI WKH DOWHUQDWLYH DVVD\V LQWR WKH RYHUDOO DVVHVVPHQW RI QWLDO HUQDWLYHDVVD\UHVXOWVUHFHLYHGE\&'(5KDYHEHHQIRUWKH3 XWWZRRIWKHSURGXFWVVWXGLHGLQWKH3²DVVD\ZHUHFRQVLGHUHG XOWV LQ WKH 3² DVVD\ KDYH EHHQ XQLIRUPO\ QHJDWLYH WKXV IDU HVXOWV DVVRFLDWHGZLWK WKHVH FRPSRXQGVZHUH SUHGRPLQDWHO\ LQ Q HLWKHU &KLQHVH KDPVWHU RYDU\ &+2 FHOOV &KLQHVH KDPVWHU KXPDQ O\PSKRF\WHV2QH SURGXFWZDV SRVLWLYH LQ6DOPRQHOOD $6HYHUDOSURGXFWVZHUHSRVLWLYHLQPRUHWKDQRQHWHVWLQ RWR[LFLW\EDWWHU\6HYHUDOZHUHSRVLWLYHLQWKHLQYLYRPLFURQXFOHXV WKHUDVVD\VIRUPXWDJHQLFLW\RUFODVWRJHQLFLW\ DYHEHHQVHHQLQWUDGLWLRQDO\HDUUDWFDUFLQRJHQLFLW\VWXGLHV UHQHJDWLYH LQ WKH3²PRXVHDVVD\1HRSODVPVVHHQ LQ WKH QRJHQLFLW\ VWXGLHV WKDW KDYHEHHQFRPSOHWHG IRUSURGXFWV WKDW
3²PRXVHDVVD\LQFOXGHKLEHUQRPDVXULQDU\EODGGHUFDUFL DIÀQOLNHFHOOQHRSODVPVWK\URLGQHRSODVPV UHQDOQHRSODVPV WLFXODUQHRSODVPV RIWKHSRVLWLYHFRQWUROIRUWKH3²VWXGLHVSFUHVLGLQHZDV UH[SODQDWLRQ6RPHVWXGLHV\LHOGHGEODGGHUQHRSODVPVLQ
RIWUHDWHGDQLPDOVZ VWXG\GDWDVHWVFRPS QHJDWLYHZKLOHRYHUD DUPV MXVW PHW UDUH K\SHUSODVLD2QWKH WXPRUV H[FHHGHG LQFOXGH WKH LGHDO GX DVVRFLDWHGKLVWRULFDO
7KH7J$& DVVD SURGXFWV EXW VWXG\ LQWHQGHGIRUGHUPDOX E\ &'(5 UHVXOWV IU )LQGLQJV RI XURJHQL FRQVLGHUHGUHOLDEO\UH RIWKHÀYHVWXGLHVZH QHJDWLYHUHVXOWVLQWU FLQRJHQLFLW\ VWXGLHV SURGXFWVZDVSRVLWLY QHJDWLYHUHVXOWVLQWKH FHOO DVVD\ 3URGXFWU SUHVHQFH RI LQÁDPP K\SHUNHUDWRVLVRUK\ SRVLWLYHFRQWURO73$
*UHDWSURJUHVVKD YDVWUHVRXUFHVWRHYD RIFDUFLQRJHQLFLW\HY WKHXWLOLW\RIWKHVHP PRUHTXHVWLRQVDQG RXWFRPHVWRJHWKHUZ PXQLW\ WRGHVLJQ IXU XQGHUO\LQJHDUO\DQG IRUWKHREVHUYHGWXP DOWHUDWLRQVLQ'1$ WLRQVRIDOWHUDWLRQVL LV OLNHO\ WR KHOS FOD ÀQGLQJVDQGDFFHOHU
7KH GDWD DUH DOV PRGLÀFDWLRQVWKDWFR KROGHUVWRDFFHSWDQG FDUFLQRJHQLFLW\VWXGL LQFOXGH WKHQXP SRZHUHJ0RUWRQ
KLOHRWKHUV\LHOGHGWXPRUVLQOHVVWKDQ2IHLJKWFRPSOHWH ULVLQJVWXG\DUPVPDOHIHPDOHVWXG\ZDVFRQVLGHUHG OOVWXG\DUPVIDLOHGWRUHDFKUDUHWXPRUFULWHULD7KUHHVWXG\ WXPRU FULWHULD RI DQLPDOV ZLWK WXPRUV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK RWKHUKDQGLQRIWKHVWXG\DUPVWKHLQFLGHQFHRIEODGGHU $GGLWLRQDO TXHVWLRQV UHPDLQLQJ DERXW WKH 3² SURWRFRO UDWLRQ RI WKH VWXG\ DJH RI DQLPDOV DW VWXG\ LQLWLDWLRQ DQG EDFNJURXQGQHRSODVPLVVXHV \ KDV SULPDULO\ EHHQ XVHG LQ &'(5 WR WHVW GHUPDOO\ DSSOLHG SURWRFROV KDYH EHHQ UHYLHZHG DQG DSSURYHG IRU SURGXFWV QRW VH$OWKRXJK7J$&SURWRFROSURSRVDOVKDYHEHHQUHYLHZHG RP RQO\ À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ÁDPPDWLRQ SHUSODVLDZDVSUHVHQW WKHVHYHULW\ZDVVLPLODU WR WKDWIRU WKH
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
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
XOGVHUYHWRRSWLPL]HWKHFRQÀGHQFHWKDWLVFULWLFDOIRUVWDNH LQWHJUDWHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQVDQGFRQFOXVLRQVIURPWUDQVJHQLFPRGHO HV3URWRFROUHÀQHPHQWLVVXHVWKDWFRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHGPLJKW EHUVRI DQLPDOVSHUGRVLQJJURXS WRRSWLPL]H VWXG\ VWDWLVWLFDO HWDO KDYHLQGLFDWHGWKDWDQLPDOVSHUGRVLQJJURXS
LV RSWLPDO IRU 7JUDV PRQWKVYVPRQWK GRVHVDQGVWURQJHYL XOHVKDYHEHHQXVHG 7J$& FDUHIXOO\ PDWRU\HQGSRLQW LQ SUHWDWLRQV DYRLG ;3$3²PLFH% KLJK GRVH VWXG\ DUP PRGLÀFDWLRQ WR WXP ;3$²²3²PRGHO
2YHUWKHSDVW\ WKDWKDYHEHHQ UHFHL ([HFXWLYH &DUFLQRJ PRGHO'DWDIURPDS DVVD\VKDYHEHHQUHF WKHVDIHW\DVVHVVPHQ LPSRUWDQW LQIRUPDWL SURGXFWXVHFRQVLGH JHQLFSRWHQWLDO EDVH ZLOOLPSDFWGUXJGHY JXLWLHVZKHQWKHDGH VWXG\ LVPXWXDOO\ X VWXG\LVDGHTXDWHEX DGGUHVV JHQRWR[LFLW\ GHFLGHZKLFKPRGHO WKHPRGHOFKRVHQKD LSDWHGSDWWHUQVRIKX JHQRWR[LFLW\VWXGLHV OLVPDQGH[FUHWLRQ
$ UHFHQW DQDO\VL PRGHOVZKHQFRQVL RIFDUFLQRJHQGHWHFW ÀFLW\RYHUWKHXVHRI DQ\RI WKH WUDQVJHQL RI WUDQVJHQLFPRXVH VXSSOHPHQWDO LQIRUP FLQRJHQVZRXOG KDY ,&+GHFLVLRQU (YDOXDWLRQDQG5HVH
7KHGDWDRI7JUD FRPELQHGFRYHUDJH IRUR[\PHWKRORQH7 GLDPLQRWROXHQHJO\ RILQYHVWLJDWLRQLQD DSSOLFDWLRQVRIDOWHUQ
+ VWXG\ GXUDWLRQ IRU H[DPSOH WKH LVVXH RI ZKHWKHU VPD\EHRSWLPDOIRU WKH3²PRGHOFORVHO\VSDFHGWRS GHQFHWKDWPD[LPDOO\WROHUDWHGGRVHVDQGRSWLPDOGRVLQJVFKHG DYRLGLQJFRQIRXQGLQJLQÁXHQFHVRIYHKLFOHFRPSRQHQWVLQ GHÀQLQJ WKHPD[LPDOO\ WROHUDWHG WRSLFDO VNLQGRVLQJ LQÁDP WKH7J$&PRGHO WKDWZLOOQRWFRQIRXQG WXPRULJHQLFLW\ LQWHU LQJ XVH RI VXEFXWDQHRXV WUDQVSRQGHU LPSODQWV LQ 3² DQG ODQFKDUGHWDODGGLWLRQRIDQDSSURSULDWHZLOGW\SH WR DVVHVV WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI WKH PRGHO·V VSHFLÀF JHQHWLF
RU RXWFRPH DVVHVVLQJ WKH XWLOLW\ RI 7JUDV+ 3² DQG VIRUWRSLFDOURXWHVRIDSSOLFDWLRQ HDUVRIWKHSURSRVHGPRXVHFDUFLQRJHQLFLW\VWXG\SURWRFROV YHGE\ WKH)'$·V&HQWHU IRU'UXJ(YDOXDWLRQDQG5HVHDUFK·V HQLFLW\ $VVHVVPHQW &RPPLWWHH KDYH RSWHG IRU DQ DOWHUQDWLYH SUR[LPDWHO\WZRGR]HQFRPSOHWHGWUDQVJHQLFPRXVHDOWHUQDWLYH HLYHGDQGHYDOXDWHG7KHYDOXHWKDWWKHVHDVVD\VDUHDGGLQJWR WSURFHVVFDQEHFDWHJRUL]HGDVRQHRIWKHIROORZLQJWRDGG RQ UHODWLQJ WR PRGH RI DFWLRQ WKDW ZLOO LPSDFW RQ SDWWHUQ RI UDWLRQVWRVSHFLÀFDOO\DGGUHVVWKHLPSOLFDWLRQVIRUFDUFLQR GRQJHQRWR[LFLW\ÀQGLQJV DQGSURYLGH HDUO\ LQIRUPDWLRQ WKDW HORSPHQWJRQRJRGHFLVLRQPDNLQJWRKHOSUHVROYHDPEL TXDF\RID\HDUVWXG\LVTXHVWLRQDEOHDQGUHSHDWLQJD\HDU QGHVLUDEOH WR KHOS UHVROYH DPELJXLWLHV ZKHQ D \HDU UDW WWKHÀQGLQJVDUHHTXLYRFDODVDUDSLGHDUO\DVVHVVPHQWWR VWXG\ FRQFHUQV SULRU WR LQLWLDWLRQ RI D FOLQLFDO WULDO7R KHOS ZLOOEHVWDGGUHVVUHJXODWRU\FRQFHUQVDQGUHGXFHXQFHUWDLQWLHV VGHSHQGHGXSRQNQRZOHGJHRIWKHGUXJ·VPHFKDQLVPVDQWLF PDQXVHWKHVSHFLÀFSURÀOHRI LQYLWURDQG LQYLYREDWWHU\RI DQGNQRZOHGJHRIWKHGUXJ·VDEVRUSWLRQGLVWULEXWLRQPHWDER $'0(DQGH[SRVXUHSURÀOHVUHODWLYHWRDQWLFLSDWHGKXPDQXVH V LQGLFDWHV WKDW FRPELQHGXVHRI DOWHUQDWLYH WUDQVJHQLFPRXVH GHUHGWRJHWKHUZLWKD\HDUUDWDVVD\ZRXOGUHVXOW LQQRORVV LRQVHQVLWLYLW\ZKLOHJDLQLQJVLJQLÀFDQWLPSURYHPHQWLQVSHFL WKH\HDUPRXVHDVVD\3ULWFKDUGHWDO+RZHYHUZKHQ FPRGHOVDUHFRQVLGHUHGDORQHRUZKHQVHYHUDOFRPELQDWLRQV PRGHOVDORQHDUHFRQVLGHUHGZLWKRXW WDNLQJLQWRDFFRXQW WKH DWLRQSURYLGHGE\ WKH\HDU UDWELRDVVD\VHYHUDOKXPDQFDU H EHHQPLVVHG 7KLV DQDO\VLV SURYLGHV VWURQJ VXSSRUW IRU WKH HÁHFWLQJFXUUHQWUHJXODWRU\SUDFWLFHLQ)'$·V&HQWHUIRU'UXJ DUFKDQG&HQWHUIRU%LRORJLFV(YDOXDWLRQDQG5HVHDUFK V+WRJHWKHUZLWK3²SUHVHQWO\DSSHDUWRSURYLGHWKHJUHDWHVW
IRUGHWHFWLQJUHOHYDQWFDUFLQRJHQV'DWDDUHPLVVLQJKRZHYHU &''DQGGLDPLQRWROXHQHLQ7JUDV+DQGHVWUDGLRO FLGROGLHWK\OQLWURVDPLQHDQGHYHQSFUHVLGLQHPD\EHZRUWK\ PRQWK3²DVVD\GHVLJQ7RIXUWKHUHYDOXDWHWKHXWLOLW\RI DWLYHWUDQVJHQLFPRGHOVIRUFDUFLQRJHQLFLW\WHVWLQJPRUHH[SH
ULHQFHZLWKDJHQWVWK VXVSHFWHG WR EH UHOH LQYHVWLJDWLRQVPD\HQ WHUPDOWHUQDWLYHVDQG
DWDUHFODVWRJHQLFEXWQRWPXWDJHQLFDQGDUHNQRZQRUVWURQJO\ YDQW FDUFLQRJHQV ZRXOG EH YHU\ KHOSIXO 5HVXOWV IURP VXFK FRXUDJHIXUWKHUFRQÀGHQFHXWLOL]DWLRQDQGHYROXWLRQRIVKRUW OHVVUHOLDQFHRQ\HDUDVVD\VWXG\GXUDWLRQV
REFERENCES
