ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT: The role of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is highlighted and described in the development of optimal design of infrastructures. Optimal design may be determined on the basis of the minimum expected life-cycle cost, E(LCC). However, in order to reduce the effect of the epistemic uncertainty in the estimated life-cycle cost, a risk-averse value of the LCC may be specified to minimize the chance of under estimating the actual life-cycle cost; similarly, a risk averse value of the safety index may be specified for design. The systematic procedure for these purposes is illustrated with a hypothetical application in the determination of the design height of the levee system in New Orleans with sufficient assurance of protection against flooding from future hurricane-induced surges. The practical implementation of the procedure is emphasized.
