ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT: Drought is a natural phenomenon that develops basically due to below average precipitation over some time period. It often impacts large areas and many sectors of the economy, especially water resources systems and food production. It is widely understood that a drought preparedness plan is a good strategy to minimize the losses due to the occurrence of a drought. One important component of such a plan is the existence of an early warning system based on monitoring and forecasts of the variables involved so decision makers can have enough time to take appropriate measures. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the quality of the probability forecasts of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for three main river basins in the State of Ceará, northeastern Brazil. Results show that SPI (3 months) with at least 2-month leadtime perform better than climatology and might provide useful information for drought management.
