ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT: Drought forecasting and warning is increasingly recognised as a key element in a comprehensive drought management strategy. This was clearly underlined in the Final Declaration of the High Level Meeting on National Drought Policy (HMNDP) held in Geneva in March 2013. From 2011 through 2013 a consortium of 19 partners collaborated within the context of the EU-FP7 DEWFORA project on developing a framework for drought forecasting and warning, with a focus on Africa. The framework recognises four key questions/stages in developing forecasting and warning capabilities; (i) what is the science available? (ii) what are the societal capacities? (iii) how can science be translated into policy? and (iv) how can society benefit from the forecast? This paper presents selected results developed in the DEWFORA project in the context of these four steps. Advances made in the science of drought forecasting, in particular over the four pilot catchments; the Oum-Er-Rbia basin in Morocco, the Niger basin, the Eastern Nile basin, and the Limpopo basin are presented. These show that while predictability of drought with lead time varies significantly across the African continent, skilful forecasts can be developed to provide key information on meteorological and hydrological drought. The paper will additionally discuss the approach developed to assess drought vulnerability, as well as the importance of policy and society in enabling drought warning to be implemented effectively such that it is a benefit to those that require it most.
