ABSTRACT
For the landslide stability evaluation of uncertainty analysis probability definition and analysis model should be performed. Quantitative probabilistic analysis of uncertainty have been proved reasonable into the research process. In Alonso’s (Alonso 1976) book the probability analysis for stability of slope is defined as the first appeared in 1970 in the slope engineering. Whitman ( Whitman 1984), Wolff (Wolff 1987), Christian (Christian 1996), Al-Homoud (Al-Homoud 2000) have been working on the non-deterministic analysis method advantages and pointed out that the application of this method can improve the slope stability analysis of uncertainty and risk probability analysis. However, it is different to use a practical method in quantify, especially in the absence of representative empirical data. Liu (Liu 2004) conducted the meteorological forecasting study for the geological disasters in China using critical rainfall criterion by geomorphology template method. Li Tiefeng (Li 2005) proposed a logistic regression
1 INTRODUCTION
Landslide disasters usually cause serious casualties and property losses, and they are also social problems received wide concerning. The correct analysis methods of the failure probability of landslide disaster area are significant for the landslide disaster prevention. So far the recognition methods for a wide area of geological disasters are divided into two categories: Deterministic and non deterministic evaluation method. The deterministic evaluation methods are based on the landslide area terrain, geology, rock and soil mechanics properties etc. Also, the mechanical evaluation model can be used to analyze the slope stability, especially the limit equilibrium method, numerical simulation and the block theory etc. The non deterministic evaluation methods are the use of mathematical statistical methods (failure probability method, reliability analysis method) and the coupling mechanics models. They are based on the study of mathematical statistical method. Using GIS and the remote sensing, the regional geologies, the tilt angle, the valley density, fault, vegetation, terrain classification and dimensions are collected to generate spatial distribution map. The weight of each factor is given to produce the superposition factor and make the comprehensive evaluation index distribution map, the formation of unstable landslide region as well.
