ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT: Based on daily discoloration percentage and meteorological datasets, the meteorological conditions of Cotinus Coggygria Leaves Discoloration (CCLD) is studied and the statistical prediction model is built. Diagnostic results are as follows: (1) CCLD has a close relationship with temperature in several coming days, and the reliability of CCLD-Day forecasted by meteorological threshold is satisfied. (2) The mean CCLD-Day is about Oct. 4th or 5th, the earliest CCLD-Day is Sept. 27th, and the latest one is Oct. 13th. (3) There is significant negative correlation between CCLD-Day and the mean temperature (also minimum temperature and maximum temperature) in Jul.. It should be notable that the annual increment of CCLD-Day has significant positive correlation with that of precipitation in Jul. (4) Choosing the annual increment of mean and maximum temperature in Jul. as predictors, the meteorological prediction model is built, and the mean error is about 3 days. (5) According to the 2011 independent verification and application in 2012-2013, the prediction model of CCLD-Day is proved to be available.
