ABSTRACT

By the late 1990s, Russian analysts have seen their predictions of the early 1990s about Kim Jong Il's likely consolidation of power become a reality. Indeed, some argued that the transfer of all powers over the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK), the government, and the military had already largely taken place before the death of Kim II Sung in July 1994. Formally, however, the rituals of North Korean politics required that an appropriate mourning period must pass before his son could pick up the formal accoutrements of power. To the bewilderment of many Western observers, it took until October 1997 for Kim Jong II to be appointed as general secretary of the WPK. 1 Still, Western observers wondered when and whether Kim Jong II would rise to the top position of power. Finally, in September 1998, the Tenth Session of the Supreme People's Assembly named Kim junior to the position of chairman of the National Defense Commission, which was to be treated as North Korea s head of state after the official "retirement" of Kim II Sung's former position as state president.2 Thus, after four years, the predictions of Russian analysts regarding the full transfer of power to Kim Jong II have finally been realized.