ABSTRACT
Like the other problems, the fair chances/best outcomes problem arises in both micro and macro contexts. Consider first its more familiar microrationing form: Which of several equally needy individuals should get a scarce resource, such as a heart transplant? Suppose that Alice and Betty are the same age, have waited on line the same length of time, and will each live only one week without a transplant. With the transplant, however, Alice is expected to live two years, and Betty, twenty. Who should get the transplant?1 Giving priority to producing best outcomes, as in some point systems for awarding organs, would mean that Betty gets the organ and Alice dies (assuming persistent scarcity of organs, as Dan Brock notes).2 But Alice might complain, "Why should I give up my only chance at survival-and two years of survival is not insignificant-just because Betty has a chance to live longer?" Alice demands a lottery that gives her an equal chance with Betty.
