ABSTRACT
Why do some ethnic conflicts attract external support from states for one or both adversaries, even on multiple occasions, while others do not? Does rebellion trigger external support or does the causal mechanism run in the other direction? How does external support affect, and in turn complicate, the state’s assurance-deterrence dilemma? The issues of internal ethnic war and state intervention are becoming increasingly salient as we move from a system of inviolable boundaries and multilateral involvement to one of failed states and regional interventions. The roles played by the behavior of host states and minorities, separatist movements, ethnic affinity, and cleavage come to the fore in considering cause and effect as related to rebellion and foreign assistance. Analysis of external involvement into ethnic conflicts can be divided broadly into two categories: studies that focus either on (1) the characteristics of the intervener; or (2) the attributes of host state and minority.1
