ABSTRACT
Introduction .................................................................................................. 360 An Introduction to Decision Theory .......................................................... 361 Structured Decision Making ........................................................................ 364 The Behavior of Decision Makers ............................................................... 367 Decision-Making Challenges in Organizations .......................................... 370 Groupthink: A Leadership Challenge.......................................................... 372 Effective Leadership: The “Groupthink” Antidote ..................................... 374 The Role of Ethics in National Security Decisions .................................... 376 Analyzing and Evaluating National Security Decisions ............................. 377
Judging Decision Quality.................................................................... 378 Bay of Pigs............................................................................................ 379 Cuban Missile Crisis............................................................................ 384 This Time a Different Approach and Better Results ........................ 385
Additional Case Examples............................................................................ 388 Summary ....................................................................................................... 390 Appendix A.................................................................................................... 393
A Collection of “Rational Action” Models ........................................ 393 The Eight Elements of Smart Choices ............................................... 393 The Sequence of Steps Involved in the Decision Process................. 393 A Generic Approach to Solving Decision Problems......................... 394 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses ................................................... 394 Action as Rational Choice .................................................................. 395 The Wise Choice Process .................................................................... 395 Thresholds: Toward a Decision-Directed Life................................... 395
Appendix B.................................................................................................... 395 Common Thinking Traps ................................................................... 395
References ...................................................................................................... 396
The fact that we were able to talk, debate, argue, disagree, and then debate some more was essential in choosing our ultimate course.
